Special Weather Statement, NWS Great Falls, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
256 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ZONES TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS
TROF...A COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE ZONES AND WILL BE
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...WILL DIMINISH BY
EARLY EVENING AS THE COOLER AIRMASS MOVES EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AND THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN. SOME
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE FRIDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM HLN-GTF-HVR. SOME DECENT HELICITY WILL SUPPORT ROTATION OF ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ON SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME
UNSTABLE AGAIN...THIS TIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. ONCE
AGAIN...GOOD HELICITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. ZELZER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE OVER THE REGION INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY...AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON EXITS THE REGION. FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A RATHER WARM AND DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY DURING
THIS PERIOD AS WELL. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE EC AND GFS ARE
A BIT DIFFERENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...WITH THE EC QUITE A BIT COOLER
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES. SINCE THIS IS THE MIDDLE OF
SUMMER...LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE GFS. YES IT SHOULD COOL OFF A
BIT...BUT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...RATHER THAN NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS THE EC HAS. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY THOUGH. AGAIN THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP LOOK LOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...WITH
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS MAINLY EAST OF A
LINE FROM HAVRE...LEWISTOWN...TO BOZEMAN. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO  DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. WILLIAMSON DC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  82  51  84 /  20  20  10  20
CTB  48  77  48  80 /  10  20  10  30
HLN  52  83  54  86 /  30  20  20  20
BZN  48  83  49  86 /  30  30  30  20
WEY  40  74  38  76 /  20  30  20  10
DLN  46  78  49  81 /  30  30  30  20
HVR  52  83  52  87 /  20  20  10  30
LWT  50  78  53  84 /  40  30  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING BLAINE...
FERGUS.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
201 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

MTZ047-051-152015-
BLAINE-FERGUS-
201 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA
AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR BLAINE AND FERGUS COUNTIES.

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL AND GUSTY DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MTZ008>015-044>046-048>050-052>055-152015-
BEAVERHEAD-NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-HILL-
CASCADE-CHOUTEAU-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-MADISON-
TOOLE-LIBERTY-EASTERN PONDERA-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-
EASTERN TETON-JUDITH BASIN-JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-MEAGHER-GALLATIN-
201 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1259 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SE GEYSER             47.24N 110.46W
07/14/2011  U0.00 INCH       JUDITH BASIN       MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AROUND 1100AM MDT.
            HEAVY RAIN. NO HAIL.

&&

MLS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
207 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

MTZ008-015-142045-
BEAVERHEAD MT-MADISON MT-
207 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MADISON AND EASTERN
BEAVERHEAD COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM MDT...

AT 204 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 23 MILES NORTH OF MONIDA...OR 29 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF DILLON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...VIRGINIA CITY.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4539 11198 4509 11158 4475 11233 4488 11248
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 225DEG 29KT 4491 11224

MLS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
303 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

MTZ055-142145-
GALLATIN MT-
303 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN GALLATIN COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM MDT...

AT 300 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BELGRADE...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BOZEMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BELGRADE...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4562 11118 4574 11138 4619 11087 4610 11077
      4583 11078
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 221DEG 29KT 4575 11119

HOENISCH