Special Weather Statement, NWS Great Falls, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
112 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2011

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE REGION. THE BIGGEST
THREATS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ALONG
WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS
EVENING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. ON
THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A
SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION LIKELY WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT OVER SOUTHWEST AND PARTS OF CENTRAL MONTANA.
HOWEVER...MORE CLOUDS MAY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLER WHICH MAY
LOWER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. BY FRIDAY...THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA.
HAVE THUS LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE ACROSS THE
AREA. MLS

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND...AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE
DIMINISHING BY THE EVENING HOURS. THEN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM CONTINUING. FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY...THE GFS/EC
HAVE FAIRLY OPPOSITE SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS BEING WARM/MOSTLY
DRY...WHILE THE EC HAS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION...RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN. FOR
NOW...WENT WITH THE DRY/WARM GFS...AS A SUMMER TIME UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS USUALLY SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT A SEASONABLE DAY ON SATURDAY...THEN A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BY
TUESDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA BEFORE 20Z...WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 22Z TODAY.
EXPECT ABOUT 1/2 HOUR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER STORMS. THE STORMS WILL START TO
EXIT NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA BY 8Z THURSDAY. BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE LIKELY IN/NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. SUK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  78  53  82 /  60  30  30  10
CTB  55  76  49  77 /  60  30  20  10
HLN  56  79  53  83 /  50  30  20  20
BZN  52  82  49  84 /  30  30  20  20
WEY  45  74  40  74 /  30  20  10  20
DLN  51  77  49  79 /  30  30  30  20
HVR  60  82  55  84 /  60  30  30  10
LWT  56  80  52  80 /  40  30  30  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
156 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2011

MTZ009>013-044>047-049>051-053>055-142000-
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-HILL-CASCADE-
CHOUTEAU-TOOLE-LIBERTY-EASTERN PONDERA-BLAINE-EASTERN TETON-
JUDITH BASIN-FERGUS-BROADWATER-MEAGHER-GALLATIN-
156 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MTZ008-014-015-048-052-142000-
BEAVERHEAD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-MADISON-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-JEFFERSON-
156 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 639 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR BEAVERHEAD...MADISON...JEFFERSON...BROADWATER COUNTIES.

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL AND GUSTY DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>