Red Flag Warning 14, NWS Great Falls, MT

430 
WWUS85 KTFX 291557
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
957 AM MDT THU SEP 29 2011

MTZ113-115-300300-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0014.110929T1800Z-110930T0300Z/
HILL AND BLAINE COUNTIES-CHOUTEAU AND FERGUS COUNTIES-
957 AM MDT THU SEP 29 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
113 AND 115...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 113 AND 115.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 17 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY 
  SOUTHEAST WINDS...WILL CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS FROM 
  MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THESE
AREAS OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

175 
WWUS85 KTFX 300245
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
845 PM MDT THU SEP 29 2011

MTZ113-115-300345-
/O.EXP.KTFX.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-110930T0300Z/
HILL AND BLAINE COUNTIES-CHOUTEAU AND FERGUS COUNTIES-
845 PM MDT THU SEP 29 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
113 AND 115...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING. 

SURFACE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...THE RED FLAG WARNING
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.


$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1100 PM MDT WED SEP 28 2011

.UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST...MAINLY
TO INCREASE CLOUDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THIS EVENING. HAVE
ALSO MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS. OBSERVED DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. COMBINATION OF
LOW DEW POINTS AND DIMINISHING WINDS ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND POSSIBLY EVEN
BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL TAPER
DOWN AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICK BY AND SHIFTING
SOUTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPDATED 0315Z.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON
THURSDAY MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA. WINDS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE BUT THERE COULD BE A BAND
OF 15 TO 20 MPH WINDS. MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE THESE 15 TO 20 MPH
WINDS WILL BE SO AT THIS POINT AM NOT PLANNING ON A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH. FINALLY THERE COULD BE A BETTER THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 85
TO 90 DEGREE WHICH WILL BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS AT SOME LOCATIONS.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15
PERCENT FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS. AGAIN WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM. IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. SOME GUIDANCE HAS WIND SPEEDS
IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE IN THIS AREA WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE HAS
VALUES IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE. BLANK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 PM MDT WED SEP 28 2011/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE
AREA LOWERING HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES IN
THE WIND DIRECTION HAVE BEEN REPORTED. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN CLIMB BACK
ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES ON THURSDAY AND SOME TEMPERATURES WILL
APPROACH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
ALONG THE HIGHLINE AND PLAINS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA. WITH WARM...DRY... AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THE MAIN THREAT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE FROM CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER NO HIGHLITES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SUK

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH MOST OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES
ARISE AT END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF A SYSTEM THAT WILL
LIKELY BRING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MONTANA WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WILL BECOME THE MORE DOMINANT
WEATHER SYSTEM. INITIALLY...WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE TFX CWA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A CANADIAN
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BEGIN SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE DURING
THIS TIME...BUT HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN 10 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHAT OVER THE
STATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT...BUT ONLY TO
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TWO STRONGER DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON
MONDAY NIGHT. THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR A WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA DURING EACH OF
THESE TIMES. THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL THEN BEGIN MOVING TOWARD
MONTANA DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. AS
MENTIONED...THE TIMING OF ITS PROGRESS EASTWARD IS IN DISPUTE. THE
GFS IS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE OF THE MODELS...BRINGING THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF/GEM ALSO BRING THE FRONT INTO MONTANA ON
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWS DOWN CONSIDERABLY AND HANGS UP
THE FRONT OVER THE STATE. THIS KEEPS TEMPERATURES WARMER AND KEEPS
PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN MONTANA MOUNTAINS. WITH THIS
DISCREPANCY...HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS TIME
AND WILL EVALUATE THE SITUATION FURTHER THROUGH FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  37  72  48  87 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  31  69  41  84 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  37  73  44  86 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  33  74  39  86 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  27  71  30  74 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  34  75  42  83 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  32  69  38  88 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  31  66  40  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
223 PM MDT WED SEP 28 2011

MTZ008>015-044>055-292030-
BEAVERHEAD-NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-HILL-
CASCADE-CHOUTEAU-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-MADISON-
TOOLE-LIBERTY-EASTERN PONDERA-BLAINE-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN TETON-JUDITH BASIN-FERGUS-
JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-MEAGHER-GALLATIN-
223 PM MDT WED SEP 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.