Special Weather Statement, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
301 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...ANOTHER WINDY DAY WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AL/GA
BORDER DOWN THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF
WATERS. DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
REACHES DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. WE'VE BEEN SEEING
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AND INTO AREAS
MAINLY NORTH OF TAMPA THIS MORNING...WITH SOME ROTATION EVIDENT ON
RADAR OFFSHORE INDICATING SOME POSSIBLE WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY. WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO OUR AREA
TODAY...EXPECTING GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH CORRESPONDING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STORMS WILL BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY...ABOUT
30 TO 35 MPH...BUT TRAINING OF CELLS COULD PRODUCE SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ISOLATED LOCATIONS. THE CONTINUED TIGHT
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AGAIN TODAY...BUT SHOULD MAINLY STAY BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
WILL HIGHLIGHT IN FORECAST PRODUCTS HOWEVER...AND WINDS DEFINITELY
HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS IN AND AROUND ANY
STORMS. WITH THE CONTINUED STRONG WINDS OFFSHORE ALONG WITH HIGH
SEAS/SWELLS...WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT
AREA BEACHES. TIDES WILL RUN ABOUT 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THIS
MORNING AT HIGH TIDE TIMES AS WELL. AND LASTLY...THE SOUTHWEST
WIND DIRECTION WILL BRING THE HIGHER SEAS TOWARDS THE COAST AND
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AN UPPER LOW GETS CUT-OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY TONIGHT...SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH AND EVENTUALLY WEST
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THEREFORE...WITHOUT ANYTHING TO
PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA...IT REMAINS OVER THE
PENINSULA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT
HOWEVER WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH. RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN ABOUT 40% WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THIS BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND. TEMPS ARE A BIT TRICKY. THERE IS
DEFINITELY SOME COOLER AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT WILL
NOT LIKELY MAKE IT DOWN MUCH PAST NORTHERN FLORIDA. COULD SEE SOME
MID 80S OVER THE NATURE COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND OTHER
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS WITH MID LVL WEAKENING TROUGHINESS STILL
IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN GULF REGION AND THE FL
PENINSULA WITH A DISSIPATING SFC BOUNDARY NEAR NORTHERN FL.
RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP LIGHT
WINDS WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY.

DRIER AIR REACHES THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE BEHIND THE SFC
BOUNDARY ON FRI WITH POPS DROPPING TO ISOLD/20 PERCENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. WILL KEEP 30 PERCENT ELSEWHERE FRI
AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED 40 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND MON AS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND QPF FIELDS STILL SHOW
ENOUGH THERMO/DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORT.

MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING GFS...ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT IF THERE
IS ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS IT WILL
LIKELY DRIFT WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR WILL AFFECT TPA...PIE AND SRQ THROUGH THE
MID MORNING HOURS WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEN IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS EXTENDED PERIODS OF MVFR OR
EVEN IFR ARE POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR WILL
RETURN IN THE EVENING HOURS...BUT WITH POSSIBLE PERIODS OF CIGS IN
THE 2000-4000 FEET RANGE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OVER THE WATERS REMAIN WELL WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
MORNING WITH SEAS OFFSHORE IN THE 9 TO 11 FT RANGE. WINDS BEGIN TO
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WEAKENS OVER THE AREA....AND SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 15KTS
OR LESS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER THE AREA...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE WITH GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS NORTH OF TAMPA
BAY AND SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS SOUTH OF THE BAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER WINDY DAY TODAY WILL CREATE HIGH DISPERSION VALUES.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  78  87  75 /  60  50  40  30
FMY  90  79  89  75 /  50  30  40  40
GIF  89  74  88  71 /  60  40  40  30
SRQ  88  77  86  74 /  60  50  40  40
BKV  88  72  87  69 /  70  50  40  30
SPG  86  79  86  77 /  60  50  40  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-
     CITRUS-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-
     PINELLAS-SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT
     20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...23/MCNATT
LONG TERM/AVIATION...22/REYNES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
411 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-070400-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
411 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME STREET AND URBAN FLOODING. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY STRONG WINDS IN AND AROUND ANY
STORMS.

...HIGH WIND IMPACT...
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH WIND SPEEDS OVER
MOST LOCATIONS SUSTAINED AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 30 MPH. WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

...COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
THE STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WHICH WILL PUSH HIGHER
WATER LEVELS UP AROUND SOUTHWARD FACING BEACHES ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTY COASTLINES. AT HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING
WATER LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND AT HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING...WATER
LEVELS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
THERE IS A CONTINUED HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT AREA
BEACHES DUE TO THE STRONG SOUTH WINDS. TO AVOID GETTING CAUGHT IN
A RIP CURRENT...SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE
BEACH PATROL. AT UNGUARDED BEACHES AND NEAR PIERS...JETTIES...AND
INLETS...DO NOT GO INTO THE SURF MUCH ABOVE YOUR KNEES.

...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WATERS
TODAY...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS. MARINERS
SHOULD STAY ALERT...AND LISTEN TO ANY MARINE WARNINGS THAT MAY BE
ISSUED.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THIS MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER MOST OF THE
WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...CONTINUING THE HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

MCNATT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
233 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

FLZ042-048-060730-
CITRUS-HERNANDO-
233 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CITRUS AND WESTERN HERNANDO
COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A THUNDERSTORM
LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF WEEKI WACHEE...OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SPRING HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH...WILL AFFECT
CHASSAHOWITZKA...HOMOSASSA SPRINGS...CRYSTAL RIVER AND BEVERLY
HILLS...UNTIL 330 AM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 2887 8274 2889 8270 2898 8275 2902 8252
      2892 8229 2844 8244 2844 8263 2850 8269
      2854 8267 2865 8269 2869 8268 2871 8273
      2875 8270 2878 8272 2877 8274 2878 8276
TIME...MOT...LOC 0633Z 212DEG 26KT 2861 8269

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
419 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

FLZ039-042-048-049-061000-
LEVY-CITRUS-HERNANDO-PASCO-
419 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT LEVY...CITRUS...WESTERN HERNANDO AND
WESTERN PASCO COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED 10 MILES NORTH OF HERNANDO BEACH...OR 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SPRING HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH...WILL AFFECT THE MENTIONED
AREA INCLUDING CHASSAHOWITZKA...HOMOSASSA SPRINGS...CRYSTAL RIVER
AND INVERNESS...UNTIL 600 AM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW
SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2945 8243 2932 8242 2922 8254 2905 8253
      2900 8235 2894 8230 2883 8225 2856 8241
      2819 8276 2852 8265 2890 8266 2899 8276
      2916 8282 2917 8304 2926 8306 2955 8268
TIME...MOT...LOC 0819Z 215DEG 28KT 2867 8266