Special Weather Statement, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
151 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - THURSDAY)...
DIURNAL SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY POWERFUL HURRICANE IRENE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWEST AND NORTH THROUGH THE BAHAMA CHAIN WELL
TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
IRENE PLEASE SEE THE LATEST ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER. AS IRENE MOVES NORTHWEST AND NORTH PARALLEL TO
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
OVER EASTERN INTERIOR COUNTIES WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND IRENE CIRCULATION WILL RESIDE...WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES AS
ONE MOVES WEST AND SOUTHWEST WHERE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
WILL RESIDE. GIVEN THIS WILL GO WITH 40 PERCENT POPS INLAND AREAS
AND 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING
NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
70S INLAND AREA AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...
LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF
HURRICANE IRENE. LATEST NHC TRACK...GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
TREND EAST. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...DRY NNW FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL KEEP
POPS RELATIVELY LOW. GFS SHOWS A RATHER COMPACT MOISTURE FIELD
WHICH KEEPS MOST OF THE MOISTURE ON THE EAST COAST OR OFF SHORE
WHILE THE ECMWF SPREADS IT FURTHER WEST. DECIDED TO LEAN MORE
TOWARDS THE GFS FOR THE WEEKEND REGARDING POPS AND CLOUD COVER AND
KEEP CONDITIONS RELATIVELY DRY WITH ONLY LOW END SCATTERED
COVERAGE. WITH IRENE PASSING EAST OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY...WINDS
ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KT...STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED FURTHER INLAND. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE BY SATURDAY WITH MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS
REESTABLISHING BY THE START OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY EXCEPTION
MAY BE BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS NEAR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 08KTS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 24/00Z WITH SKIES CLEARING. A LIGHT E/SE
WIND WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE IN SPEED AFTER 24/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS OVER
THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DURING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS
TROPICAL CYCLONE IRENE MOVES NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER THE ATLANTIC
WELL EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
OF IRENE REMAINING WELL TO THE EAST OF THE PENINSULA WINDS AND SEAS
WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS DURING THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS WILL RETURN TO THE
WATERS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF IRENE. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON IRENE...SEE THE LATEST ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  94  77  91 /  20  30  20  30
FMY  78  93  76  91 /  20  30  20  30
GIF  76  94  77  91 /  20  30  20  40
SRQ  78  93  78  90 /  20  30  20  30
BKV  74  93  75  91 /  20  30  20  30
SPG  79  93  79  90 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/AVIATION...24/COLSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
518 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-232130-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
518 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG SEABREEZE
BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS...
AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND BECOME NORTH
TO NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO HURRICANE
IRENE MOVING NORTH OVER THE ATLANTIC. WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS OVER
THE GULF WATERS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE
THIS WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WITH AN EXPECTED TRACK WELL OFFSHORE OF FLORIDAS EAST
COAST...LOCAL IMPACTS OF IRENE SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL. CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR ANY UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST OF THIS HURRICANE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

JOHNSON

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
402 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

FLZ042-043-232030-
SUMTER-CITRUS-
402 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN CITRUS
AND NORTHWESTERN SUMTER COUNTIES FOR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS VALID UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 401 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN SUMTER COUNTY...OR 9
MILES NORTHEAST OF INVERNESS...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH WILL AFFECT
RURAL NORTHWESTERN SUMTER COUNTY AND RURAL EASTERN CITRUS COUNTY.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.
FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM
TALL OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO
AND WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2896 8230 2896 8212 2896 8211 2880 8211
      2881 8234 2897 8232 2897 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 006DEG 7KT 2891 8222