Small Craft Advisory 1, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
243 AM EST THU JAN 6 2011

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE ACTIVITY IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN CONFINED
TO THURSDAY. THE 07Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...BETWEEN TLH AND CTY. IT
EXTENDS TO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARDS TODAY...AND RECEIVE A KICK
FROM AN APPROACHING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AFTER 21Z. THIS WILL HELP THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS TO PUSH THROUGH AS WELL AND BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS THIS MORNING...GREATEST IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH...THEN PUSHED THEM FARTHER SOUTH TO END BY 00Z.
INCREASED THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. STRONG JET LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL REMAIN AND WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PENINSULA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRONOUNCED
DRY INTRUSION IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD END THE
SHOWERS AND THREAT OF STORMS. THEN AFTER 00Z...STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL TAKE PLACE. A 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE CARVING ITSELF OUT ACROSS
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THIS WILL HELP TO FORCE COLD AIR DOWN THE
PENINSULA. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +2 TO +4C BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL
CREATE COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING. WINDS AND GULF CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP TO HOLD TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING. WIND CHILLS LOOK TO STAY ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS
POINT. BY FRIDAY THE 500 MB VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND SO THE COLD
AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH 850 MB TEMPS STICKING AROUND +4 TO
+6C. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW NORMAL. A RATHER STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DEEPENING LOW OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF.
THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
HELP TO HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT AS WELL...AND HAVE GONE WITH THE
GUIDANCE VALUES. THEN FOR SATURDAY THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BUT
REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +8C AND A
SURFACE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...THE GFS HAS COME BACK TO A
MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION REGARDING THE NEXT SYSTEM FORECAST TO
AFFECT OUR WEATHER BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. YESTERDAY THE GFS BROUGHT THE ENERGY OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TOO QUICKLY. IT ALSO
DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE TOO FAR SOUTH...BRINGING IT ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS ARE NOW NEARLY IDENTICAL WITH
RESPECT TO POSITION AND TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT WHILE THE LATEST
00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS. WITH MODELS
IN SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT...HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE NOW THAT IT
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOWERS COULD MOVE IN TO OUR
NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT BASED ON THE FASTER ECMWF. THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOLLOWED BY
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN THREAT THROUGH 09Z WILL BE PATCHES OF SEA FOG AND
LIGHTER SHOWERS WHICH MAY BRING TEMPO MVFR OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
TO ALL TERMINALS. AFTER 09Z...THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE APPROACHING TPA...PIE AND SRQ WITH TEMPO TSRA. THIS SHOULD
MOVE SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY 13Z WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST. FMY AND RSW COULD SEE SHOWERS THROUGH 15Z BEFORE
WINDS TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...CONCERNS ARE FIRST FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN TAMPA BAY
AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WITH ONGOING SEA FOG EVENT IN THE
WARM AND HUMID ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BY SUNRISE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PROVIDES
MIXING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE FRONT PASSES AND
SHIFTS THE FLOW TO NORTHWESTERLY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP BY THURSDAY EVENING AND LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A RATHER STRONG SURFACE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AND KEEP WINDS AND SEAS ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND BRINGS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS WITH RAIN AND HIGH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  65  47  65  52 /  40   5   0   0
FMY  70  48  69  53 /  50  10   0   0
GIF  67  42  66  46 /  40   5   0   0
SRQ  66  49  65  53 /  40   5   0   0
BKV  65  38  64  43 /  30   0   0   0
SPG  64  51  62  56 /  40   5   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT
     20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...35/JOHNSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...63/JILLSON

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
302 AM EST THU JAN 6 2011

FLZ042-043-048-060830-
SUMTER-HERNANDO-CITRUS-
302 AM EST THU JAN 6 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CITRUS...NORTHERN
HERNANDO AND SOUTHERN SUMTER COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED NEAR ROYAL HIGHLANDS...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BROOKSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH...WILL AFFECT CHASSAHOWITZKA...
BROOKSVILLE...RIDGE MANOR AND BUSHNELL...UNTIL 330 AM EST.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW
SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 2869 8195 2847 8198 2855 8261 2873 8258
TIME...MOT...LOC 0802Z 276DEG 42KT 2863 8249