Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

789 
WWUS52 KTBW 070738
SVSTBW

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
338 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

FLC057-081-115-070746-
/O.EXP.KTBW.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-110907T0745Z/
HILLSBOROUGH FL-SARASOTA FL-MANATEE FL-
338 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL MANATEE...NORTHWESTERN
SARASOTA AND SOUTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 345 AM
EDT...

THE STORMS HAVE WEAKENED AND ARE NO LONGER SEVERE. STRONG WIND GUSTS 
UP TO 45 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS

DANGEROUS FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS STILL OCCURRING WITH 
THESE STORMS. REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. 

LAT...LON 2785 8238 2771 8220 2740 8224 2719 8250
      2757 8262
TIME...MOT...LOC 0736Z 227DEG 21KT 2769 8240

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
930 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

.DISCUSSION...
MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH SAGGING
INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA EARLY THIS EVENING. A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS (DEW POINTS IN THE 50 AND 60S) WAS NOTED WELL TO THE NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN PENINSULA WHILE
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION ALONG
AND TO THE SOUTH OF IT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.

AS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A DEEP LAYERED SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE OVER LEVY COUNTY WHERE SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AFTER REVIEWING SATELLITE AND
88D TRENDS AS WELL AS 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE PLAN TO CUT BACK RAIN
CHANCES TO A SILENT 10 PERCENT ACROSS LEVY COUNTY...ISOLATED RANGE
(20 PERCENT) FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NATURE COAST...AND SCATTERED
RANGE (30 TO 40 PERCENT) CENTRAL AND SOUTH. IN ADDITION WILL ALSO
TWEAK OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN
CURRENT READINGS AND 18Z MAV GUIDANCE. OTHER THAN THIS NO OTHER
GRID OR ZONES CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT BUT WITH SOME SHRA/TSRA MOVING IN OFF THE GULF
FROM TIME TO TIME. OVERALL COVERAGE TOO LOW FOR TEMPO GROUPS. MORE
SHRA/TSRA AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
VIA C-MAN AND OFFSHORE BUOY TRENDS AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
AND REMOVE EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS IN THE NEXT
FORECAST UPDATE LATER THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION HAVE LET THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY EXPIRE AS WELL AS CONDITIONS ALONG AREA BEACHES
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. OTHER THAN THESE MINOR TWEAKS NO OTHER CHANGES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL
AVIATION...63/JILLSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
411 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-070400-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
411 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME STREET AND URBAN FLOODING. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY STRONG WINDS IN AND AROUND ANY
STORMS.

...HIGH WIND IMPACT...
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH WIND SPEEDS OVER
MOST LOCATIONS SUSTAINED AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 30 MPH. WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

...COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
THE STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WHICH WILL PUSH HIGHER
WATER LEVELS UP AROUND SOUTHWARD FACING BEACHES ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTY COASTLINES. AT HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING
WATER LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND AT HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING...WATER
LEVELS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
THERE IS A CONTINUED HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT AREA
BEACHES DUE TO THE STRONG SOUTH WINDS. TO AVOID GETTING CAUGHT IN
A RIP CURRENT...SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE
BEACH PATROL. AT UNGUARDED BEACHES AND NEAR PIERS...JETTIES...AND
INLETS...DO NOT GO INTO THE SURF MUCH ABOVE YOUR KNEES.

...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WATERS
TODAY...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS. MARINERS
SHOULD STAY ALERT...AND LISTEN TO ANY MARINE WARNINGS THAT MAY BE
ISSUED.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THIS MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER MOST OF THE
WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...CONTINUING THE HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

MCNATT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
133 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

FLZ050-051-070615-
HILLSBOROUGH-PINELLAS-
133 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PINELLAS AND WESTERN
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED NEAR SAFETY HARBOR...OR NEAR CLEARWATER...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH...WILL AFFECT TOWN 'N' COUNTRY...TAMPA
INTERNATIONAL APRT...SAFETY HARBOR AND OLDSMAR...UNTIL 215 AM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW
SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2809 8284 2806 8280 2816 8274 2816 8236
      2790 8232 2767 8240 2765 8256 2789 8241
      2792 8248 2782 8246 2783 8254 2796 8256
      2799 8267 2794 8271 2788 8258 2781 8258
      2769 8271 2763 8266 2762 8273 2786 8286
TIME...MOT...LOC 0533Z 232DEG 40KT 2803 8262

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
237 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

FLZ048>052-055-060-070730-
POLK-HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-PINELLAS-MANATEE-SARASOTA-
237 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HERNANDO...MANATEE...SARASOTA...
PASCO...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH AND NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MENTIONED AREA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH...WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM SARASOTA TO
HERNANDO...UNTIL 330 AM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST.

&&

LAT...LON 2867 8263 2863 8226 2847 8207 2719 8207
      2699 8239 2740 8258 2752 8269 2777 8245
      2789 8241 2792 8248 2783 8254 2796 8256
      2800 8265 2799 8267 2794 8271 2781 8258
      2761 8273 2786 8284
TIME...MOT...LOC 0635Z 221DEG 16KT 2734 8245