Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

922 
WWUS52 KTBW 170013
SVSTBW

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
813 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

FLC015-027-170022-
/O.EXP.KTBW.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-110617T0015Z/
DESOTO FL-CHARLOTTE FL-
813 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN CHARLOTTE AND
SOUTHERN DESOTO COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 815 PM EDT...

ALTHOUGH THE STORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS IT WILL CONTINUE 
TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL OVER 
WESTERN DESOTO COUNTY THROUGH 9 PM.

LAT...LON 2700 8202 2724 8197 2718 8168 2694 8181
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 205DEG 1KT 2712 8188

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
135 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 70S INLAND AND THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 NEAR THE COAST. THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE STATE FROM
THE ATLANTIC FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE TO THE
WEST OF THE STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S COASTAL AND MID 90S INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND TO THE
MID 70S TO NEAR 80 COASTAL.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS WITH A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP A
TROUGH AT 500 MB SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY EARLY THIS
COMING WEEK. HOWEVER THE DETAILS REMAIN UNSETTLED FROM RUN TO RUN.
WITH POOR CONSISTENCY CONTINUING...WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE TROUGH AXIS DOES SET UP WILL MAKE
A DIFFERENCE IN THE FINAL FORECAST. CURRENTLY THE GFS HAS SETTLED
TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION AS THE AREA IS IN A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND
THE 500 MB TROUGH. AT ANY RATE...THE 850 MB TEMPS STILL LOOKING
AROUND +18 TO +20C WHICH WILL MEAN WELL INTO THE 90S INLAND. A
WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR A DAILY
SEABREEZE AND THUS COOLER ON THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
STARTING OFF THE TAF PERIOD PRETTY QUIET WITH NOT EVEN A LOT OF
CLOUDS OUT THERE. EXPECT CUMULUS TO DEVELOP QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON
BUT REMAIN VFR. HAVE INCLUDED SOME VCTS AT TPA...FMY AND RSW
THAT HAVE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACTIVITY. VFR/LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS FROM
THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND THEN ESTABLISH BY FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. FLOW WILL BE S/SE WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE EACH DAY
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  92  77  92 /  20  30  20  30
FMY  75  94  75  93 /  20  30  20  30
GIF  75  96  75  96 /  20  40  20  40
SRQ  75  91  75  90 /  20  20  20  20
BKV  70  95  69  94 /  20  30  20  30
SPG  80  91  79  91 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/COLSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...23/MCNATT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
542 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-162100-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
542 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE QUICKLY INLAND. THE STRONGEST
STORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL. ALL
THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DEADLY LIGHTNING...ONE OF THE LEADING CAUSES
OF WEATHER RELATED DEATHS IN FLORIDA.

...EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
IT WILL BE HOT TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 90 TO 95 ALONG
THE COAST AND 94 TO 99 INLAND. THE HEAT INDEX WILL CLIMB TO NEAR
105 DEGREES...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED RISK OF HEAT STROKE TO
THOSE WHO WORK OUTDOORS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES EACH DAY. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
EXPECTED...BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME HAIL.

...EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

JILLSON