Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1037 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

CORRECTED TO ADD CLIMATE INFORMATION IN DISCUSSION PORTION

.DISCUSSION...
A TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO IS KEEPING MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE AND
GUSTY ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS REACHED RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS
AT TAMPA INTERNATIONAL...SARASOTA-BRADENTON INTERNATIONAL...AND
SAINT PETERSBURG-ALBERT WHITTED. SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ISOLATED COASTAL TO SCATTERED INLAND
MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S COASTAL TO THE MID-UPPER 90S
INLAND. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL BE GENERALLY 100-105. NO
UPDATES PLANNED.

SITE: MIN TEMP OBSERVED - PREVIOUS RECORD (*LAST OCCURRENCE)
TPA: 83 - 81 IN 1998
SRQ: 81 - 78 IN 2010*
SPG: 82 - 81 IN 1998

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SCATTERED OUT BY MID MORNING WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD
AGAIN REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL SITES FROM SARASOTA NORTH
TO TAMPA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST TERMINALS KFMY AND KRSW WHERE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SO HAVE DEPICTED VCSH
AND CB REMARKS FOR BOTH SITES MAINLY AFTER 19Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE WEST IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY ALONG THE COAST WITH
SEAS 2-3 FEET. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND HAVE NO MAJOR
CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE UPDATE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/COLSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
526 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-152130-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
526 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE INLAND AND GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I 4. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS...HEAVY
RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER
INLAND WITH THE EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE SEA BREEZE. MAY SEE A
SEA BREEZE COLLISION NEAR POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTY TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE TO THE RISK OF STRONG STORMS
DEVELOPING. STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

BARRON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
136 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

FLZ042-043-048-151815-
SUMTER-HERNANDO-CITRUS-
136 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CITRUS...NORTHERN
HERNANDO AND NORTHWESTERN SUMTER COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED NEAR INVERNESS...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT
INVERNESS...UNTIL 215 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS
STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. WHEN DRIVING THROUGH HEAVY
RAIN...SLOW DOWN. ALWAYS LEAVE A SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER
VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 2872 8214 2866 8241 2891 8245 2895 8225
TIME...MOT...LOC 1736Z 345DEG 3KT 2884 8232