River Flood Warning 6, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
158 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - TUESDAY)...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AMPLE MOISTURE (PW'S AOA 2 INCHES)
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS EACH DAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH VERY SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE MAV
POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO LOW...SO WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM AGAIN
AND KEEP POPS IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE MID 90S
INLAND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S INLAND AREAS AND UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN WITH AN UPPER TO MID LEVEL LONG WAVE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A SUBTROPICAL SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF TAMPA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN THE INFLUENCES OF IRENE WILL SHIFT THE
FLOW TO OUT OF THE NORTH. AFTER THAT...SEE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
TRACK ON IRENE THROUGH DAY 5 THEN GFS SOLUTION PUTS THE TRACK OF
IRENE INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF...MAKING LANDFALL NEAR MIAMI
AND TRACKING ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA...PASSING EAST
OF ORLANDO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SPEEDING PAST JACKSONVILLE AND OUT
OF THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT. FROM NHC FORECAST EXPECT THE INTENSITY
OF IRENE TO WEAKEN AFTER CROSSING HISPANIOLA BUT WILL LIKELY BE
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTH FLORIDA
REGION. POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE...WITH
60 PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
PASSES THE AREA.

IN THE WAKE OF IRENE...SURFACE WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA WILL BE WESTERLY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT GULF AND SEA BREEZES TO REACH TPA AND SRQ SOON WITH WESTERLY
WIND SHIFT SO WILL SHOW THOSE AT 18Z. MAIN TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER
BOUNDARY PASSES SO VCTS SHOULD SUFFICE. FMY AND RSW MAY SEE BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDING WEST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW ALONG WITH SLIGHT SEAS OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH AN ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOPING
NEAR SHORE EACH AFTERNOON. DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS TROPICAL CYCLONE IRENE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE COASTAL WATERS WILL ALL DEPEND
ON THE INTENSITY AND EXACT TRACK OF IRENE...BUT BASED ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK AND TIMING FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL LIKELY
SEE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
IRENE...SEE THE LATEST ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  93  79  93 /  20  40  20  40
FMY  75  94  78  93 /  20  50  20  50
GIF  75  95  77  95 /  20  50  20  50
SRQ  75  93  78  92 /  20  30  20  40
BKV  72  94  73  94 /  20  40  20  40
SPG  81  93  82  93 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/AVIATION...63/JILLSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
505 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-212115-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
505 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. TO BE SAFE IMMEDIATELY STOP ALL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND MOVE
INDOORS IF YOU HEAR THUNDER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY WITH GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS FORECASTING TROPICAL STORM IRENE
TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND COORDINATE WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FOR POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

DAVIS