Red Flag Warning 26, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
310 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - WEDNESDAY)...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE
SURFACE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC. AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EXPECT WARM TO HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE ONLY SUBTLE CHANGE SEEN IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR /1 TO 2 DEGREES CELSIUS/ AT 850 MB MOVING IN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC.
THIS IN TURN SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES 2 OR 3 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. THIS PATTERN PERSISTS
ON TUESDAY... WITH SOME WARMING POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH BUT STAYED
CLOSE TO THE MAV TO THE SOUTH.

RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW BUT NOT QUITE ZERO...
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY REACH THE MID 90S
OVER THE INTERIOR NATURE COAST AND SOME MOISTURE MAY ROTATE
NORTHWARD TOWARD CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM
UPPER PATTERN AT 500MB BEGINS WITH RIDGING OVER THE AREA BUT
STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH BY FRIDAY. GFS ATTEMPTS TO PINCH OFF
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AND CUTS OFF A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER
FLORIDA BY SATURDAY AND DRIFTS IT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AS THE LONGWAVE
RIDGING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN AHEAD OF A POWERFUL UPPER LOW
MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE A SURFACE REFLECTION ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS WEEK AND THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS
THE GULF BUT THIS SURFACE FEATURE WILL WEAKEN BY SATURDAY SO NO
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA. THUS TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 80S ON THE COAST TO
THE LOWER 90S INLAND. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH THE UPPER
LOW PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...AND WILL KEEP CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST. BY MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
STRENGTHEN AND RETURN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. NO RAIN CHANCES AS THE AIRMASS
REMAINS DRY.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EACH DAY WILL BECOME ONSHORE AT
10 KNOTS OR SO EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EASTERLIES
WILL STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO SEE EASTERLY SURGES AT NIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT SHOULD STAY DRY EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER TAMPA BAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WE WILL SEE MARGINALLY LONG DURATIONS OF
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 25 AND 35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON INLAND FROM
THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH DRY SOIL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS FROM LEVY SOUTHWARD TO PASCO THEN
EAST TO SUMTER AND SOUTH INTO POLK. HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT
ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS
APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN 4 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  73  91  72 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  92  71  92  70 /  10   0   0   0
GIF  93  69  92  68 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  89  69  89  68 /   5   0   0   0
BKV  94  64  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  91  76  89  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-LEVY-PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JOHNSON