Red Flag Warning 23, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
923 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2011

.UPDATE...
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHALLOW
INSTABILITY IS ALREADY ALLOWING FOR CU TO DEVELOP WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S. CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. FORECAST IS ON
TRACK FOR TODAY. ISOLATED POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SOME SHALLOW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS TODAY. PRESENCE OF A WARM LAYER AROUND 800
MB AND PWAT BELOW 1 INCH WILL LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OR STRENGTH
OF ANYTHING THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECTING WEST WINDS TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT. BKN DECK AROUND 4KFT WILL
LINGER AROUND THE AREA TODAY BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2011/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING. THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS HAVE DRIED OUT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BUT SOME
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW 6KFT AND THIS IS EVIDENT NOT ONLY
BY LAST NIGHT'S TBW SOUNDING BUT ALSO THE CONTINUED STRATO-CU
MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH BASES AROUND 4-5KFT. WITH THIS MOISTURE
IN PLACE TODAY...MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT CREATING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE COULD
ALSO SEE SOME ISOLD THUNDER AS WELL. WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH HOWEVER...KEPT JUST 20% POPS IN THE FORECAST. WILL BE A COOL
START TO THE WEEK...WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON RUNNING ABOUT 5
DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL.

THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER OHIO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
THAT JUST PUSHED THROUGH WILL HANG OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
AS WELL. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AT LEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ALSO CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. AN
ADDITIONAL SURGE OF COLD AIR TONIGHT MAY HELP PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED RAIN/SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT AND RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ON TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...REMAINING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A BROAD MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ROTATES
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AND THEN SLIDES OUT OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DURING THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS
FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND REACHES THE SE U.S FOR THE END
OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE TO THE ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUES
TO RIDGE BACK OVER FL TO THE GULF SUN. THE UPPER FEATURES
MAINTAIN GENERALLY DRY AND COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
RESULTING IN A RAIN FREE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY BELOW
NORMAL GRADUALLY BECOME NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND THEN SLIGHT ABOVE
BY SAT AND SUN.

MARINE...
WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WINDS REMAIN
WESTERLY TODAY AND TUESDAY OVER THE WATERS. A TIGHTER PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THE LOW REMAINS IN PLACE...AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO WIND
SPEEDS AROUND OR JUST BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA. WINDS
FINALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SLIDES IN OVER THE AREA.

FIRE WEATHER...
WHILE THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH...NOT SEEING A REAL SURGE
IN LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TODAY. IN FACT...CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP CLOUDS IN OVER THE AREA LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND THIS...ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
IT TODAY HOWEVER AS 20FT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15MPH AND WE
ARE JUST A LITTLE ABOVE THE 35% RH THRESHOLD OVER OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EXPECT THAT
SOME OF OUR NORTHERN AND INLAND COUNTIES WILL SEE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES DROP TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL
HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  81  67  77  63 /  20  20  20  10
FMY  85  67  84  62 /  20  20  20  10
GIF  82  63  80  57 /  20  20  20  10
SRQ  82  65  79  61 /  20  20  20  10
BKV  82  55  78  48 /  20  20  10  10
SPG  79  70  76  68 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JOHNSON
AVIATION...BARRON
LONG TERM...RUDE
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...MCNATT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
442 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2011

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-170400-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
442 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA BEACHES TODAY WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. A RIP CURRENT IS A 10
TO 30 YARD WIDE CHANNEL OF WATER THAT CAN PULL EVEN A STRONG
SWIMMER INTO DEEPER WATER. TO AVOID GETTING CAUGHT IN A RIP
CURRENT...SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH
PATROL. AT UNGUARDED BEACHES AND NEAR PIERS...JETTIES...AND
INLETS...DO NOT GO INTO THE SURF MUCH ABOVE YOUR KNEES.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
COASTAL AND BAY WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 20 KNOTS
BY LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. IF TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
CLIMB HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT FORECASTED VALUES HOWEVER...RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES MAY DROP TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR ONE TO
THREE HOURS. THIS...COMBINED WITH GUSTY 20 FOOT WINDS...COULD
CREATE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVER THE AREA.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 35 PERCENT
EACH AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY...AND THIS WILL
CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

MCNATT