Red Flag Warning 22, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1254 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - FRIDAY)...PRONOUNCED NARROW RIDGING TO THE
WEST THIS EVENING TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND WEAKEN FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND SUPPRESSES
IT. SMALL WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM
THE W ATLANTIC OVER THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE E GULF
TONIGHT TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD THU/FRI AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY. CONTINUE TO
EXPECT WARM AND FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS NEXT FEW DAYS WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION MAINLY INLAND ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE FAIRLY CONSISTENT AS EURO IS NOW ALSO IN
AGREEMENT WITH GFS AND DGEX. MEX POPS HAVE ALSO COME A LITTLE
HIGHER...AND MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT A FAIRLY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC
SCENARIO WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH AND MID LVL CLOSED LOW DROPPING
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY SUNDAY WITH H570 DOWN TO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO... IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE THE INCREASING TREND
IN POPS AND BRING LATE SAT AND SUN AFTERNOON VALUES TO 30 AND 40
PERCENT RESPECTIVELY.

IN GENERAL...WEEKEND CONTINUES WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON SATURDAY THEN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY INCREASES AS THE TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX SWINGS BY JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
SHOULD GET A BIT TIGHTER IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC FRONT...BUT WILL
KEEP WINDS IN THE 15 MPH RANGE FOR NOW. BY TUESDAY...DRIER AIR
WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION WITH LOW END AFTERNOON POPS IN
PLACE.

EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT...THEN COOLING DOWN A LITTLE THROUGH
TUESDAY. MORNING LOWS REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST...AND MID 60S TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS...DIMINISHING SOME OVER NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...GRADIENT TO REMAIN WEAK WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
SEAS TO END THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES. COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF SATURDAY WITH SW FLOW INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO AND STALL IN THE EAST
CENTRAL GULF WITH WESTERLY FLOW KEEPING MODERATELY CHOPPY WINDS
AND SEAS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND WARM AIRMASS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH AFTERNOON MIN RHS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
PERCENT RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS EACH DAY WITH AROUND CRITICAL ERC
VALUES AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  90  75  90 /   5  10  10  20
FMY  72  92  72  92 /  10  10  10  20
GIF  71  93  70  93 /  10  20  20  20
SRQ  71  88  71  87 /   5  10  10  20
BKV  65  91  63  91 /   5  10  10  20
SPG  77  89  77  89 /   5  10  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/DAVIS
AVIATION...09/RUDE
LONG TERM...22/REYNES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
447 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-120000-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
447 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZES SHIFT INLAND. ANY STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS AS
THE SEABREEZES SHIFT INLAND. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

MCNATT