Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
127 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND
LATEST SURFACE TEMPERATURE/WIND ANALYSIS DEPICTS CLEARING SKIES
ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH AN INLAND PROGRESSING SEABREEZE AND
WARMING TEMPS. IN ADDITION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REDEVELOPING ABOUT 50
NM OFFSHORE FROM SPG-VENICE AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE COASTLINE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING AS OUTFLOWS INTERACT WITH THE SEABREEZE. LIGHT
STEERING FLOW WILL PROMOTE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN SOME AREAS - ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS WHICH RECEIVED 2
TO 3 INCHES YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW GIVEN CURRENT SETUP AND HIGH
MOISTURE PROFILES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF TROF AXIS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND UP ALONG THE
U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH TOMORROW MAY REDUCE THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EARLY IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER GOOD CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS MUCH OF THE DRIER AIR
PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THE LONG TERM.
MID LVL RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH A SFC AXIS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...A DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND BRINGING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. EXPECT RETURNING SEA BREEZES NEAR THE
COAST EACH AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ONE OR TWO ABOVE NORMALS WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S. MORNING LOWS
REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
BKN VFR CIGS PREVAIL ALTHOUGH EXPECT HEIGHTS TO LOWER SOME THIS
AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE VICINITY TSRA THROUGH 02Z BUT SOME TEMPO
TSRA WITH MVFR VSBY/CIGS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LCL IFR POSSIBLE
DURING ANY HEAVIER TSRA. LATE NIGHT MARITIME SHRA MAY PUSH ONSHORE
AFTER DAY BREAK.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MARINE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF DEVELOPING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY A RELATIVELY LIGHT FLOW PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL AS SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST EACH DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH
LIGHT WINDS. THEREFORE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF LIGHTNING FREQUENCY WHICH WILL BE HIGH AS THE SEABREEZE
TRIGGERS STORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  92  77  93 /  30  50  40  40
FMY  76  93  76  93 /  30  50  40  40
GIF  75  94  75  93 /  30  50  40  40
SRQ  74  91  75  90 /  30  50  40  40
BKV  71  93  73  93 /  30  50  30  30
SPG  81  91  79  90 /  30  50  40  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...10/LAMARRE
LONG TERM...22/REYNES
AVIATION...09/RUDE