Wind Chill Advisory 2, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Coffee County, AL, Dale County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Henry County, AL, Houston County, AL, Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Dixie County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gadsden County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Lafayette County, FL, Leon County, FL, Madison County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL, Baker County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Clay County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Cook County, GA, Decatur County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Early County, GA, Grady County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Lee County, GA, Lowndes County, GA, Miller County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Quitman County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Seminole County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Thomas County, GA, Tift County, GA, Turner County, GA, Worth County, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
200 PM EST WED JAN 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AS WAS WELL FCST...THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS TO OUR WEST...RUSHED INTO THE REGION LAST NIGHT ALLOWING
LOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER ALMOST
THE ENTIRE CWA. FROM OUR ASOS OBSERVATIONS...TALLAHASSEE (TLH)
DIPPED DOWN TO 28...WHILE THE COLDEST SPOTS HIT 25 DEGREES AT PERRY
FL (40J)...OZARK AL...AND FORT RUCKER AL (LOR). THE MILDEST OF THE
LOW TEMPERATURES (30 DEGREES) OCCURRED AT CROSS CITY 30 FL (CTY) AND
VALDOSTA GA (VLD). THE LOWEST WIND CHILL READINGS DIPPED DOWN INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS OVERNIGHT AS WELL. DESPITE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO CLIMB LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS PLENTY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS CONTINUING TO OCCUR WITH THE 1045 MB ARCTIC RIDGE STILL CENTERED
WELL TO OUR WNW. THIS SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 35 TO 40
DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.

OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS ARE STILL FAIRLY STRONG OUT OF THE
NNW...SO THE EXPECTED LULL BACK TO CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS FOR PARTS
OF THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY NOT OCCUR. ALSO...EVEN IF
THERE IS A BRIEF LULL...FULL SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN RIGHT
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ALTHOUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE VERY QUIET WITH NO SENSIBLE WEATHER (PRECIPITATION) TO
WORRY ABOUT...TEMPERATURE FORECASTING WILL BE CHALLENGING ENOUGH IN
ITS OWN RIGHT. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING HARD FREEZES FOR AT LEAST
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND A POSSIBLE HARD FREEZE FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH SE
TOWARDS THE CWA...SFC WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
ABOVE 5 MPH AT FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...WITH SOME
QUESTIONS IF THEY WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OR REMAIN ELEVATED LATE
TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WE ARE FCSTING A COMBINATION OF A COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING HARD FREEZE TONIGHT...WITH THE
FINAL LOW TEMPERATURES DEPENDENT ON HOW MANY HOURS EACH LOCATION IN
OUR CWA HAS CALM TO LIGHT WINDS. AFTER ANOTHER SUNNY AND COLD DAY ON
THURSDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SET UP IDEALLY FOR A RADIATIONAL
HARD FREEZE...WHICH COULD BE OF LONG DURATION DUE TO MANY HOURS OF
VERY LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC RIDGE CENTERS IN JUST TO OUR
NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE INTO THE 50S ON FRIDAY
AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODERATE...WITH THE LAST HARD FREEZE OF
THE SERIES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE
NEARLY IDEAL ONCE AGAIN...BUT THERE ARE NOW SOME GREATER
DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH COULD MAKE
THIS A BORDERLINE HARD FREEZE FOR MANY AREAS. WIND CHILLS ARE ALSO A
CONCERN ONCE AGAIN FOR TONIGHT...AND WILL NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER
ADVISORY SINCE THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE TEENS.
FINALLY...WILL ADD A HARD FREEZE WATCH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE
CURRENT HAZARDS.

.LONG TERM...SAT THROUGH NEXT WED.
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING A SHORT WAVE OVER NEW MEXICO DROPPING SWD INTO N CENTRAL OLD
MEXICO AND THEN MOVING SE DOWN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS ENERGY
THEN OPENS UP AS IT SWINGS OUT OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS
LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT FOR LIFT DOWNSTREAM OVER OUR AREA DURING THIS
TIME WITH PLENTY OF COLD DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. SAT NIGHT
SHOULD SEE ONE MORE FREEZE OVER THE ERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE THE MODERATING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS BY SUN AFTERNOON.

AS THE INITIAL GULF ENERGY DISSIPATES...ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL BE
DIVING SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD THE BASE OF THE ERN LONG WAVE
TROUGH. IT IS AT THIS POINT WHERE WE SEE SOME RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES IN THE GFS AND DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THIS MODEL AND
THE EURO. THE EURO IS THE MORE ENERGETIC MODEL WITH THE ENERGY AS IT
REACHES TX AND IS SLOWER TO BRING IT EWD ACROSS THE GULF STATES. THE
GFS IS MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE. FOR THIS REASON...THE GFS ONLY
BARELY DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE WRN GULF STATES...WHICH THEN
ABSORBS INTO THE COLD FRONT MOVING EWD WITH A MORE POTENT NRN STREAM
LOW. THE EURO STILL BRINGS A DEEPENING LOW CENTER NEWD FROM E TX ON
MON ACROSS THE TN VALLEY MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE EURO HAS TRENDED
NWD WITH THE LOW AND WITH THE TREND IN THE GFS...DO NOT WANT TO GO
WITH AS POTENT OF A SYSTEM AS DEPICTED BY THE EURO. PLAN TO FAVOR
THE GFS AND SHOW AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MON NIGHT WITH FROPA ON
TUE. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE INTRODUCED BY SUN NIGHT AND WE NOW
SHOW A MAX POP OF 40 MON NIGHT WITH A DECREASE INTO TUE.

&&

.MARINE...AFTER TWO MORE PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THEREAFTER
TO LIGHT TO MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THEN...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BECOME QUITE LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS THE ONCE STRONG ARCTIC RIDGE STEADILY
WEAKENS AS IT SETTLES IN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET TO THE 3 TO 7 KNOT
RANGE...THEN BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS OUR FL
ZONES TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT. ACROSS THE
GA AND AL ZONES...CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH...SO WILL LEAVE THE
WATCH IN PLACE. ANOTHER RED FLAG DAY APPEARS LIKELY ON FRIDAY ACROSS
THE FL ZONES...AND CLOSE ACROSS GA AND AL WHERE DURATIONS CURRENTLY
FALL JUST SHORT...BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   23  46  21  54  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
PANAMA CITY   25  46  24  52  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
DOTHAN        25  43  25  51  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALBANY        23  43  20  51  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
VALDOSTA      23  45  21  53  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
CROSS CITY    21  48  19  57  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
APALACHICOLA  26  46  26  52  30 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR ALL ZONES.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY ALL ZONES.

     HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     ALL ZONES.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL ZONES.

GA...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ALL
     ZONES.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     ALL ZONES.

     HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ALL
     ZONES.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL ZONES.

FL...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 9 AM EST /8
     AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR ALL ZONES.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EST /11 PM CST/ TONIGHT TO 10
     AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY ALL ZONES.

     HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING ALL ZONES.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING ALL ZONES.

     RED FLAG WARNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALL ZONES.

     FIRE WX WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALL ZONES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY ALL ZONES.

&&

AVIATION/FIRE WX...DVD
PUBLIC/MARINE...GOULD
LONG TERM...WOOL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
523 AM EST WED JAN 12 2011

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-130300-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
523 AM EST WED JAN 12 2011 /423 AM CST WED JAN 12 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT THIS MORNING...
...A HARD FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT...

NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ARE PRODUCING WIND
CHILL READINGS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES THIS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL RISE ABOVE THE CRITICAL 20
DEGREE THRESHOLD BY 9 OR 10 AM. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD SOUTH OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE
SUNNY TODAY BUT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL RAPIDLY IN THE DRY AIR MASS AFTER SUNSET WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE REGION BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S INLAND AREAS AND MID 20S ALONG THE COAST. AS A
RESULT...A HARD FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL ALSO LIKELY BE
IN EFFECT. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE GRIP OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HARD FREEZES ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES
WILL COMMENCE THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

BARRY