Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1050 AM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

.UPDATE...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES SET TO PASS
OVER OUR LOCAL AREA IS ASSISTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GOMEX AS WELL AS OVER OUR COASTAL COUNTIES
IN NORTH FLORIDA.

ALTHOUGH THE DEVELOPING SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK DUE TO THE
WEAK TEMPERATURE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON...BOUNDARIES FROM
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH WILL INTERACT WITH THE DEVELOPING SEABREEZE
FRONT TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...THE SEABREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHERE A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ASSIST THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS REGIONWIDE. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
LIKELY WITH THIS AFTERNOONS STORMS AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE DOMINANT THREAT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST WILL BE THE
EXCEPTION WHERE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN
TO THE EASTERN GULF. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION AS WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 5
FEET ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT CAUTIONARY LEVELS THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO FALL BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z RADAR SHOWS A LOT OF ACTIVITY ALONG THE GULF COAST
THIS MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING ECP WITH TEMPOS FOR THE WHOLE
PERIOD. THESE TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT TODAY MAKING
THEIR WAY INLAND. A SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH INTERACTING
WITH THE SEA BREEZE ENHANCING TSRA COVERAGE. SO A MORE ACTIVE DAY
OVERALL WITH GUSTY WINDS...THUS ALL SITES HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPOS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON...IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   92  76  98  77  99 /  70  30  40  20  20
PANAMA CITY   87  80  94  80  96 /  70  30  40  20  20
DOTHAN        93  76  97  76  97 /  60  30  20  10  20
ALBANY        95  75  98  76  99 /  60  30  20  10  20
VALDOSTA      97  75  97  74  99 /  70  30  20  10  20
CROSS CITY    90  76  95  75  97 /  70  30  50  20  20
APALACHICOLA  90  80  93  79  96 /  70  30  40  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...HERSEY/GODSEY
REST OF DISCUSSION...HARRIGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1113 AM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-100100-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1113 AM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011 /1013 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN
REACHES OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON
STORMS. ALTHOUGH A WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED...IT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
INCLUDED PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE WEST...SOUTHWEST...AND
SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF GULF...BAY...AND WALTON COUNTIES TODAY.
MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
OUTSIDE OF APALACHEE BAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH THE DECREASING CONVECTION WE WILL SEE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING THE CENTURY MARK
AT SOME INLAND LOCATIONS. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA WILL ELEVATE HEAT
INDICES AT OR ABOVE 110 DEGREES AND A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
BEGINNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED ACTIVATED AT THE FIRST ISSUANCE OF
A WATCH OR WARNING FOR THEIR AREA.

HARRIGAN/BARRY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1147 AM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

FLZ034-134-091630-
INLAND DIXIE FL-COASTAL DIXIE FL-
1147 AM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR DIXIE COUNTY IN
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...

* UNTIL 1230 PM EDT

AT 1144 AM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 37 MILES SOUTH OF PERRY...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
STEINHATCHEE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN DIXIE COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

WINDS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

ALSO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH
MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2938 8321 2942 8324 2942 8329 2947 8332
      2949 8336 2948 8337 2950 8341 2959 8342
      2966 8342 2964 8301 2934 8309 2933 8311
TIME...MOT...LOC 1547Z 289DEG 18KT 2958 8347

17-GOULD