Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1022 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011

.DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE LOCAL AREA OFF TO AN EARLY
START WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION. THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...A LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH...A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND
AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD LIKELY POPS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MORNING KTLH SOUNDING REVEALED JUST HOW MOIST
THE ATMOSPHERE IS WITH A PWAT OF 2.34 INCHES...SUPPORTING THE
POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. A MODIFIED PARCEL OF 89/64
STILL YIELDED A PWAT NEAR 2.3 INCHES...WITH JUST OVER 3000 J/KG OF
CAPE. THIS PUTS THE INSTABILITY SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR
TWO...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY OF THE STORMS
THAT DO BECOME SEVERE WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT EASTERLY THIS
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE TROUGH RETREATS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH OVER OUR MARINE ZONES. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ALL TERMINALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY...STARTING
EARLIEST AT KECP AND GRADUALLY WORKING NORTHWARD. TEMPO GROUPS ARE
IN PLACE FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   89  74  89  73  93 /  60  40  60  40  50
PANAMA CITY   87  76  87  77  92 /  60  40  50  40  50
DOTHAN        87  75  87  73  91 /  80  50  60  40  50
ALBANY        88  74  89  73  91 /  80  50  60  30  40
VALDOSTA      89  74  88  72  92 /  70  40  60  30  50
CROSS CITY    89  74  89  73  92 /  50  40  50  30  60
APALACHICOLA  88  77  88  75  91 /  60  30  50  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...DVD
REST OF DISCUSSION...HARRIGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
409 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-160815-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
409 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011 /309 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A MID LEVEL LOW COMBINED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FEATURING
GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PAST
SUNDOWN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY GENERATE LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THE FOCUS OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS THE GEORGIA
COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO MORE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEABREEZE
FOCUSED STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK...RETURNING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO AT OR BELOW NORMAL...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG ON ANY GIVEN
AFTERNOON...NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER SPOTTERS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER LATER TODAY
AND REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

BLOCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1256 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011

FLZ018-019-151745-
MADISON FL-INLAND JEFFERSON FL-
1256 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON AND MADISON
COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 145 PM EDT

AT 1251 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES EAST OF
TALLAHASSEE TO 10 MILES WEST OF LIVE OAK...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM LLOYD TO NEWBURN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND ARE
ALSO PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3026 8325 3026 8344 3027 8347 3030 8347
      3030 8364 3040 8408 3043 8408 3046 8404
      3052 8404 3053 8398 3060 8401 3067 8400
      3066 8375 3055 8324 3043 8322 3038 8317
TIME...MOT...LOC 1655Z 204DEG 6KT 3047 8399 3029 8316

42-DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
139 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0117 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE MADISON CO AIRPOR 30.44N 83.40W
07/15/2011                   MADISON            FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWERLINES DOWN

&&

HARRIGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
141 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0117 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW MADISON CO AIRPORT 30.44N 83.45W
07/15/2011                   MADISON            FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWERLINES DOWN

&&

HARRIGAN

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