Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
336 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
THE 16 UTC REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER SOUTH FL AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTH GA AND NORTH AL. LOCAL RADARS SHOWED
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THESE WILL
LIKELY LINGER UNTIL THIS EVENING. VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA
SHOWED OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER A COL...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CELLS TO
OUR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST...AND TROUGHS TO OUR NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHWEST. PRECIP WATER IMAGERY SHOWED VALUES ABOUT 30 PERCENT
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) BY TUESDAY A 500 MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO
BE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY. DESPITE THESE BUILDING HEIGHTS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST...OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A FAIRLY
MOIST ZONE WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES REMAINING AROUND 2 INCHES OR
HIGHER. SUCH DEEP MOISTURE...WHEN COMBINED WITH CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY AND AND FORCING...IS USUALLY CONDUCIVE FOR ABOVE-
AVERAGE POPS FOR OUR AREA THIS TIME OF YEAR. MUCH OF THE FORCING
WILL COME FROM MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES (I.E. THE SEA BREEZE FRONTS
THAT DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON)...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A
MID LEVEL VORT MAX (AND ACCOMPANYING ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE)
WILL CIRCLE AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND AFFECT OUR REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS COULD FURTHER ENHANCE THE RAIN
CHANCES...EVEN OVERNIGHT. SOME DRYING MAY COME IN FROM THE EAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS WHY WE WILL KEEP THE POP NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THAT DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE...BUT JUST HOW MUCH WILL DEPEND ON EACH FORECAST POINT AND
WHETHER OR NOT THAT POINT GETS CLOUDS AND RAIN OR NOT. THE OVERALL
MOIST...TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY IS USUALLY
NOT AS CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WHAT WE SAW
FREQUENTLY DURING THE LAST FEW WEEKS IN JUNE.

.LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY) THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS.
THE GFS AND EURO REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS TRANSITIONING TO ONE WITH A MEAN
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST... ANOTHER OFF THE EAST COAST...AND A
BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE CAROLINAS...
CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
BECOME ABNORMALLY AMPLIFIED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DURING THE
COMING WEEK...AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO THE MEAN TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND THE RIDGE SHARPENS AND BECOMES CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL MAINTAIN
SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA...PROVIDING FUEL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AS STRONG DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES AND THE
SEABREEZE PUSHES INLAND EACH DAY. THE IMPACT OF THE UNSEASONABLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ON THE TRI-STATE AREA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...WHEN A STRONG SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO
THE MEAN TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST...AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTH
AND WEST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO GEORGIA. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE AN
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING
THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK...AND THE COMBINATION OF HOT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL HEAT INDICES THAT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TREND DOWNWARD A BIT TOWARD MORE NORMAL
VALUES. EXPECT POPS TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR MOST
OF THE WEEK...THEN INCREASE SOME BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
OCCASIONALLY REDUCING CONDITIONS TO IFR LEVELS AT THE TERMINALS.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35KT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 01Z.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH. WITH DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
ALSO EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MORNING...MVFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT TLH/VLD/ECP BEFORE SUNRISE. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BY 13Z WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA
DEVELOPING NEAR ECP BY 14Z. OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP
FREE UNTIL AFTER 18Z...SO NO MENTION OF STORMS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...PROVIDING THE
REGION WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS. THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR WHEN ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS CAN
DEVELOP OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAY MAKE SOME DENT
INTO THE RECENT DROUGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   74  93  75  94  75 /  30  50  30  50  30
PANAMA CITY   77  89  77  89  77 /  30  50  30  50  40
DOTHAN        75  95  75  95  75 /  30  50  20  50  30
ALBANY        76  96  76  96  75 /  30  50  20  50  30
VALDOSTA      74  95  73  95  73 /  30  50  30  50  30
CROSS CITY    73  93  74  92  73 /  30  50  30  50  40
APALACHICOLA  77  90  76  90  77 /  30  40  30  50  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

LONG TERM...DUVAL
AVIATION...GODSEY
REST OF DISCUSSION...FOURNIER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
347 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2011

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-101100-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
347 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2011 /247 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...FLORIDA...NORTHERN FLORIDA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA...SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO RANGE BETWEEN 100 AND
105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS
A TROPICAL AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE AREA. BY MIDWEEK...EXPECT A
GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE STORMS. HOWEVER...NO
ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND HIGH
DEWPOINTS FROM THE TROPICAL AIRMASS MAY PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO
THE 105 TO 109 RANGE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DVD

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
311 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2011

GAZ142-092000-
EARLY GA-
311 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EARLY COUNTY IN
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

AT 305 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF DOTHAN...OR NEAR HALEBURG...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL EARLY COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

WINDS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO
PRODUCING NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3140 8485 3124 8493 3131 8508 3134 8508
      3144 8506
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 299DEG 13KT 3136 8507

17-GOULD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
343 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2011

GAZ142>144-092030-
MILLER GA-BAKER GA-EARLY GA-
343 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR BAKER...EARLY AND
MILLER COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

AT 336 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 34 MILES EAST OF DOTHAN...OR NEAR CUBA...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO
PRODUCING NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3136 8450 3111 8457 3122 8490 3140 8482
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 300DEG 9KT 3130 8481

17-GOULD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
410 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2011

GAZ146-092100-
COLQUITT GA-
410 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COLQUITT COUNTY
IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

AT 403 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 28 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TIFTON...OR NEAR FUNSTON...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL COLQUITT COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

WINDS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO
PRODUCING NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3130 8356 3105 8366 3109 8392 3116 8400
      3131 8398 3131 8390
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 306DEG 23KT 3119 8386

17-GOULD