Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
310 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2011

...A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO ISOLD SEVERE REST OF THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVE...

...WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER ON TAP INTO WEEKEND...

.SYNOPSIS...
CONVECTION DEVELOPED DURING EARLY AFTN ACROSS STALLED FRONT ALONG
CNTRL FL PANHANDLE INTERACTING WITH WEAK SEA BREEZE AND SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AIDED BY H5 TROUGH...HIGH PWATS/DEW POINTS. UNDER
TEMPS UP TO THE MID 90S AND AMPLE DEEP LYR MOISTURE...MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF MLCAPE HELPED DEEPEN THESE CELLS AS THEY DRIFTED NWD
ALONG SEABREEZE WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSED FROM LEON COUNTY E/SE TO DIXIE
COUNTY. ADDITIONAL ISOLD CELLS DEVELOPED ACROSS AL/GA COUNTIES. WEAK
LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR BRIEF PULSE STORMS AND A FEW CAN
GENERATE GUSTY WINDS INTO THIS EVE. ALSO CANNOT DISCOUNT BRIEF
SEVERE STORM WITH MICROBURSTS AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE WERE VARIOUS
REPORTS OF WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF
APALACHICOLA.

AT UPPER LEVELS...
THE LARGE SCALE LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED. THIS IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY A TROUGH OVER WRN STATES WITH LOW OVER SRN UT...A
RIDGE FROM DESERT SW NEWD TO ANTICYCLONE OVER SW KS THEN NNE ACROSS
UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY REGIONS...AND A TROUGH OVER ERN MOST
STATES FROM 562DM LOW OVER QUE AND AXIS SWD TO 588DM LOW SW OF
APALACHICOLA.

DURING THE NEXT 24HRS...WRN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS
THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WITH ASSOCD POTENT GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE
EJECTS ENE. THIS WILL FLATTEN RIDGE AND IT SHUNTS IT FURTHER NEWD TO
UPR MS VALLEY/UPR GREAT LAKES. IN RESPONSE...DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGH
SHUNTED E/NE FROM OFF ERN SEABOARD SWWD TO NE MOST GULF OF MEX.
ASSOCD CLOSED QUE LOW EDGES SLOWLY E AND OPENING INTO A TROUGH. H5
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF CWA TONIGHT. LOCALLY THIS WILL
YIELD A PREDOMINANT DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. TLH VAD SHOWS VEERING FLOW
FROM SW AT SFC TO NW AT 2K TO NNE ABOVE 6K. THIS ALSO REFLECTED IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS. I.E. GFS TAE WITH 1.93 INCH PWAT AT 18Z THU
DECREASING TO 1.21 INCH PWAT AT 18Z FRI. FARTHER INTO ENCROACHING
DRIER AIR...DHN WITH 1.46 INCH PWAT AT 18Z THU DECREASING TO 1.14
INCH PWAT AT 18Z FRI.

AT LOWER LEVELS...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS WWD ACROSS S FL AND INTO THE GULF.
LOOKING N...A STALLED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NOTED ALONG THE FL
COAST. MODELS IMPLY THAT FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND STALL ALONG THE
COAST INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WV APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. LOOKING SOUTH...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA FRIDAY AND THEN INTO SOUTH GEORGIA ON SATURDAY. ALL
THIS WILL WASH OUT SURFACE FRONT/TROUGHS B4 SATURDAY.

TS ARLENE WAS MOVING OVER THE E COAST OF MEXICO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM WILL SHOWS INCREASINGLY DRIER AIRMASS...FEWER CLOUDS AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS AND COOLER LOWS EACH DAY THRU WEEKEND.

TONIGHT...UNLIKE RECENT NIGHTS...CONVECTION OVER LAND IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE FAIRLY EARLY...BUT WILL LAST LONGER OVER THE APALACHEE BAY
AND POSSIBLY DIXIE COUNTY. WILL GO WITH 30-10% SE-NW POP GRADIENT.
LOWS FROM AROUND 70 SE BIG BEND/ADJACENT GA TO MID 70S PANHANDLE
COAST.

FRIDAY...40-10% SE-NW POP GRADIENT DAYTIME...0 TO 20% N-S AT NIGHT.
HIGHS 90 COAST TO MID-UPPER 90S NORTH. LOWS NEAR 70 SE BIG
BEND/ADJACENT GA TO MID 70S PANHANDLE COAST.

SATURDAY...10-20% POPS DAYTIME...NIL POPS AT NIGHT. HIGHS 90 COAST
TO MID-UPPER 90S INLAND. LOWS UPPER 60S SE BIG BEND/ADJACENT GA
TO LOW 70S SE ALA/SW GA.

SUNDAY...NIL POPS. HIGHS 90S COAST TO UPPER 90S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUN NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THU.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH RIDGING EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS A BREAK
BETWEEN THIS LARGE RIDGE AND THE BERMUDA RIDGE JUST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST DUE TO A DEPARTING EAST COAST TROF. WITH THE RIDGING REMAINING
IN PLACE INTO AT LEAST MONDAY...POP CHANCES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
LOW AND CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE SEA BREEZE ZONE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR THE 100 DEGREE MARK. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TALLAHASSEE FOR THE FIRST PART OF JULY ARE IN THE
MID 100S (1931)...WHICH WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN SHOULD BE SAFE.

BY TUESDAY...THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL DEEPEN AS
IT SURGES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE LARGE RIDGE RETREATING WESTWARD...WHILE THE EASTERN
COMPONENT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY...CREATING A GAP BETWEEN THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE AND THE BERMUDA RIDGE. AS THIS OCCURS ON TUESDAY...AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AS
WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL ALSO DROP OFF INTO THE MID 90S.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SWD ACROSS THE
WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING ESTABLISHED TO THE N. THIS WILL
CREATED A PERIOD OF RATHER LIGHT WINDS WITH SEA BREEZE DOMINATING
THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRI WITH WINDS SWITCHING AROUND TO THE E BY SAT.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MAXIMIZE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DROP OFF DURING THE MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON
HOURS. TS ARLENE WILL GENERATE SOME SWELLS WHICH WILL MOVE NEWD AND
LIKELY INCREASE RIP CURRENT RISK BY LATE WEEKEND.... ESPECIALLY OVER
PANHANDLE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT-BKN CU FIELD HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTING BAND THROUGH SOUTHERN AL INCLUDING
KDHN WITH A LACK OF CU...BUT EXPECT THIS AREA TO FILL IN WITH TIME.
THE CU FIELDS IS GIVING WAY TO A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY TO THE EAST KDHN AND KECP...AND IT IS THE EASTERN
TERMINALS OF KTLH...KABY...AND KVLD THAT WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR BRIEF VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SHOWERS.
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN THIS EVENING
GIVING WAY TO PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR VIS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN...ESPECIALLY
FOR THOSE TERMINALS WHICH RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY ISOLATED IN NATURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   72  96  71  96  71 /  20  40  10  20  10
PANAMA CITY   76  90  76  92  75 /  20  20  20  20  10
DOTHAN        72  97  72  98  74 /  10  10  10  20  10
ALBANY        72  97  72  97  72 /  10  10  10  20  10
VALDOSTA      70  96  69  96  68 /  20  30  10  10  10
CROSS CITY    70  95  69  94  67 /  40  40  20  20  10
APALACHICOLA  75  90  75  91  71 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

BLOCK/MROCZKA/GODSEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
524 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2011

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-011000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
524 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2011 /424 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TODAY
ACROSS MAINLY THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE WITH
COVERAGE DROPPING OFF RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH. THE STORMS IN
NORTHWEST FLORIDA WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY WILL SEE SIMILAR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO TODAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS PREVALENT THAN NORMAL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN SOAR SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS ON SUNDAY AND INDEPENDENCE DAY. HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK
AROUND 105 DEGREES ON THESE DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

18-WOOL

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
732 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TSTM WND GST     APALACHICOLA AIRPORT    29.72N 85.03W
06/30/2011  M43 MPH          FRANKLIN           FL   ASOS

&&

HARRIGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
810 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0347 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW TALLAHASSEE COML  30.45N 84.29W
06/30/2011                   LEON               FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN ON OLD BAINBRIDGE ROAD NORTH OF WEST BREVARD
            STREET. OLD BAINBRIDGE WAS CLOSED AT THAT LOCATION AT
            THAT TIME.

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
814 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0416 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WOODVILLE               30.31N 84.25W
06/30/2011                   LEON               FL   PUBLIC

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN THE WOODVILLE AREA

&&

DVD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
829 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2011

FLZ028-029-034-128-134-010115-
INLAND DIXIE FL-LAFAYETTE FL-INLAND TAYLOR FL-COASTAL DIXIE
FL-COASTAL TAYLOR FL-
829 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR DIXIE...SOUTHERN
LAFAYETTE AND SOUTHEAST TAYLOR COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 915 PM EDT

AT 827 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 19 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PERRY
TO 54 MILES SOUTH OF LIVE OAK...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM COOKS
HAMMOCK TO YELLOW JACKET...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 2942 8324 2942 8329 2947 8332 2950 8341
      2965 8342 2973 8357 2975 8357 2976 8360
      3006 8320 2956 8295 2939 8303 2936 8306
      2935 8306 2931 8312 2932 8314 2928 8315
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 048DEG 14KT 2998 8331 2951 8301

42-DVD