Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
335 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BROAD MID/UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...AND THE SCATTERED PIECES OF ENERGY ALONG ITS PERIPHERY ARE
AIDING THE SEABREEZE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF STORMS IS BEST OVER THE
PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WHERE THE SEABREEZE IS ACTING AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM AND A PEPPERING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
NONE OF THESE STORMS HAVE REACHED SEVERE CRITERIA AS OF YET...IT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT A STORM OR TWO COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON.

WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHS HAVE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
TONIGHT...MOST OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF AFTER
SUNSET...HOWEVER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT OUTFLOW FROM STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER TENNESSEE AND NRN ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
INTERACT WITH OUR LOCAL SEABREEZE AND BOUNDARIES FROM OUR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION TO KEEP A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...OUR COASTAL
WATERS WILL BE PLACED IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING
BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE SRN U.S. AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THAT
COUPLED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER
APALACHEE BAY.

MONDAY...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE SRN U.S. WILL
NOSE INTO OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND HELP TO KEEP AFTERNOON
STORMS LIMITED OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA AND OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...AFTERNOON STORMS WILL
FORM ALONG THE SEABREEZE FRONT...PRIMARILY OVER THE BIG BEND OF
FLORIDA AND INTO SRN GEORGIA. HOWEVER...EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE OF
STORMS TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.
LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST ACROSS SE ALABAMA AND THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE...WHERE THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOSING WEST AND CONVECTION IS
LIMITED...HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT UPPER 90S.

MONDAY NIGHT...AS IS COMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR OVERNIGHT/MORNING
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

TUESDAY...VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO MONDAY WILL DOMINATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
KEEP CONVECTION LIMITED AND TEMPERATURES HIGHER OVER OUR WESTERN
FORECAST AREA. FURTHER EAST...THE SEABREEZE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE
FOR AFTERNOON STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA. THE
ONLY DIFFERENCE ON TUESDAY WILL BE THAT A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH
THE UPPER TROF...WHICH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WILL FORCE A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH NEAR OUR NRN GEORGIA COUNTIES.
THIS YIELDS A CHANCE FOR A GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER SRN
GEORGIA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE IN PAST
DAYS.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...BOTH THE 26/00Z GFS AND
25/12Z EURO FORECAST A VERY WEAK FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
DISSIPATE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WHEN COMBINED WITH SEASONABLE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...THIS WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BEYOND
THAT TIME...THE EURO CONTINUES TO SHOW FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF
DAILY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHEREAS THE GFS HAS LESS. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF A DISSIPATING BOUNDARY IN THE REGION...WILL SIDE MORE
WITH THE EURO AND GO A BIT ABOVE THE MEX POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
RESULTS IN POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND COMPARED TO THE
MEX SUGGESTION OF 20-30 PERCENT. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA AND GIVEN
WAY TO A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. JUST ABOUT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES COULD SEE A BRIEF STORM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EXPECT
LOCALIZED AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE STORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STORM COVERAGE WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND END WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET. THOSE
TERMINALS THAT DO SEE A SHOWER TODAY WILL RUN THE GREATEST RISK OF
MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS
ARE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER OUR COASTAL
WATERS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN NEAR. LIGHT
WINDS...AND SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET WILL BE COMMON. EXPECT A SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENT IN WINDS AND SEAS NEARSHORE EACH AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SEABREEZE. EARLY IN THE WEEK A SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM A
DISTURBANCE IN THE SRN GOMEX WILL INCREASE SEAS UP TO 2 TO 3
FEET...BUT BY MID WEEK SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN SUBSIDE. OUR COASTAL
WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECT A
SCATTERING OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   73  95  73  95  73 /  20  50  20  50  30
PANAMA CITY   76  91  75  91  76 /  20  40  20  40  30
DOTHAN        74  96  74  97  74 /  30  20  10  30  30
ALBANY        74  97  74  98  74 /  30  20  20  30  30
VALDOSTA      72  96  73  96  71 /  30  40  30  40  30
CROSS CITY    72  92  71  92  70 /  20  60  30  40  20
APALACHICOLA  76  91  75  90  75 /  30  40  20  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...HARRIGAN
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...DVD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
408 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-270815-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
408 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011 /308 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING MAINLY
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AS THE PESKY UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...DRIER
AIR FILTERS BACK IN. A RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
IS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEA BREEZE DRIVEN
CONVECTION. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

BLOCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
233 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

ALZ069-261900-
HOUSTON AL-
133 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR HOUSTON COUNTY...

* UNTIL 200 PM CDT

AT 130 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DOTHAN...OR NEAR HARMON...MOVING
WEST AT 10 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO
PRODUCING NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. .

LAT...LON 3101 8547 3129 8539 3120 8511 3101 8509
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 108DEG 10KT 3109 8519

9-FOURNIER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
305 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

FLZ017-018-GAZ157-158-261930-
THOMAS GA-GRADY GA-LEON FL-INLAND JEFFERSON FL-
305 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST GRADY...
NORTHERN JEFFERSON...NORTHEAST LEON... AND SOUTHERN THOMAS COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT

AT 300 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTH OF THOMASVILLE...OR NEAR METCALF...
MOVING WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO
PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3057 8426 3091 8416 3076 8381 3052 8391
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 104DEG 9KT 3070 8398

9-FOURNIER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
326 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

FLZ016-017-262000-
LEON FL-GADSDEN FL-
326 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST GADSDEN
AND WESTERN LEON COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

AT 324 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 19 MILES WEST OF TALLAHASSEE...OR NEAR WETUMPKA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO
PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3067 8447 3047 8436 3041 8462 3052 8469
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 243DEG 7KT 3049 8459

9-FOURNIER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
328 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

FLZ017-262000-
LEON FL-
328 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN LEON
COUNTY IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

AT 325 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE...OR NEAR
MICCOSUKEE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN LEON COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3052 8404 3046 8404 3036 8415 3063 8430
      3068 8411 3067 8410 3067 8401 3060 8401
      3055 8398 3053 8398
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 047DEG 10KT 3058 8404

14-MROCZKA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
345 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

FLZ013-026-262030-
CALHOUN FL-LIBERTY FL-
245 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR CALHOUN AND
LIBERTY COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT/430 PM EDT/

AT 242 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SMALL
GROUP OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 31 MILES SOUTH OF MARIANNA...OR NEAR
HUGH CREEK...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND ARE ALSO
PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3019 8512 3020 8512 3020 8514 3036 8537
      3058 8511 3036 8488 3015 8506
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 121DEG 4KT 3035 8507

9-FOURNIER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
406 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

FLZ011-013-026-262030-
CALHOUN FL-JACKSON FL-LIBERTY FL-
306 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST
CALHOUN...SOUTHEAST JACKSON...AND NORTHEAST LIBERTY COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT/430 PM EDT/

AT 300 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARIANNA...OR NEAR TORREYA STATE
PARK...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO
PRODUCING NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3081 8494 3063 8490 3062 8491 3061 8493
      3060 8490 3059 8489 3053 8500 3071 8517
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 155DEG 7KT 3061 8497

9-FOURNIER