Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1031 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2011

.UPDATE...EXPANSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS SPREAD
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A PASSING SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH
THE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT. THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH PANAMA CITY AND THEN
INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE RAINFALL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS
CURRENTLY INHIBITING ANY FURTHER INLAND PROGRESS OF THE FRONT WITH
THE WARM SECTOR CONFINED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PANAMA CITY TO
TALLAHASSEE TO VALDOSTA. THIS HAS KEPT THE STRONGER STORMS
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS THUS FAR THIS MORNING...DESPITE THE
FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME WITH
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT REMAINING OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...FOCUSING TOWARDS THE EASTERN BIG BEND LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT A BREAK IN THE ACTION SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS.

HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES GRIDS ACROSS GEORGIA/ALABAMA THIS
MORNING TO LOWER MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO ADJUSTED THE
SEVERE WORDING TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST THREAT ANALYSIS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TODAY IN WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AND BEYOND INTO THURSDAY. LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TO NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IN AND AROUND HEAVY
SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   74  65  70  47  78 /  90  40  60  10  10
PANAMA CITY   74  63  68  53  74 / 100  40  50  10  10
DOTHAN        69  57  65  46  78 /  90  40  40  10  10
ALBANY        68  60  66  45  77 /  90  40  50  10  10
VALDOSTA      72  63  70  47  78 /  90  40  70  10  10
CROSS CITY    77  68  75  49  77 / 100  30  80  10  10
APALACHICOLA  75  66  71  53  74 / 100  40  60  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

CAMP/BARRY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
400 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2011

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-311000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
400 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2011 /300 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EAST
OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE
AREA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED TOWARD THE COAST AND OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR
SPREADS OVER THE REGION. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT
SHOWER OR TWO COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE
GEORGIA AND ALABAMA COUNTIES AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTS SOUTH OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
DIP BELOW AVERAGE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...THEN RETURN TO AROUND AVERAGE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
AMATEUR RADIO SUPPORT WILL BE NEEDED...BUT RADIO OPERATORS ARE
ASKED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY FOR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1026 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2011

FLZ016-017-301515-
GADSDEN-LEON-
1026 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN GADSDEN
AND NORTHERN LEON COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 1115 AM EDT

AT 1022 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF QUINCY...OR NEAR JAMIESON...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

ALSO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH
MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

LAT...LON 3052 8404 3046 8404 3045 8406 3055 8456
      3069 8452 3067 8402 3061 8401 3052 8398
TIME...MOT...LOC 1426Z 282DEG 29KT 3064 8442

42-DVD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1043 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2011

FLZ014-015-114-115-301545-
COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND GULF-
1043 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR FRANKLIN AND GULF
COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 1145 AM EDT/1045 AM CDT/

AT 941 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PORT ST. JOE...OR 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CAPE SAN BLAS...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2967 8522 2965 8535 2978 8542 2970 8532
      2983 8533 2999 8506 2978 8490 2975 8491
      2977 8489 2974 8486 2975 8492 2970 8500
      2969 8517 2968 8507 2963 8509 2961 8504
      2968 8486 2971 8489 2967 8481 2958 8503
TIME...MOT...LOC 1443Z 249DEG 30KT 2957 8541

22-BARRY