Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
345 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
THE 16 UTC REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK FRONTAL LOW
OVER THE FL PANHANDLE...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS WAVE
TO THE TX COAST...AND A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM MARIANNA FL
THROUGH AMELIA ISLAND FL. LOCAL RADARS SHOWED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS FRONT. VAPOR
IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA APPEARED TO SHOW THAT THE SUBTLE SHORT
WAVE THAT WAS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. EARLY THIS MORNING HAD MOVED
EAST OFF THE U.S. COAST. THE LARGE SCALE 500 MB FLOW OVER THE
CONUS CONTINUED TO BE FAST AND ZONAL...WITH MORE SUBTLE SHORT
WAVES PERHAPS LURKING UPSTREAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) THE NWP GUIDANCE PUSHES THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY...BUT NOT COMPLETELY AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER HIGH AND THERE MAY BE SOME
WEAK Q-G FORCING. ONE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TUESDAY IS THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AS THE MODELS DISAGREE GREATLY ON HOW
INTENSE THE COLD AIR WILL BE THIS FAR SOUTH. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER
OR NOT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW
SIGNIFICANT HEATING. IN SHORT...HIGHS COULD REACH THE MID 70S OR
MID 50S IN SOUTH GA...SO WE TOOK AN AVERAGE OF THE VARIOUS
GUIDANCE IN HOPES OF NOT BUSTING TOO BADLY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALL THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS FRONT BEING
SLOW AND ACTIVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY AS A SERIES
OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG IT. THIS WILL
LIKELY GIVE OUR AREA SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
OUR PROJECTED STORM TOTAL QPF FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IS ABOUT
2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. UNFORTUNATELY THERE MAY BE A
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY...AS OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR (AFTER THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH).
THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT COMBINATION OF 0-6KM VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...CAPE...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...AND FORCING FOR AT LEAST SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING ROTATING UPDRAFTS.

.LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY) AFTER SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES WHERE
THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN COMPLETE DISAGREEMENT AFTER THE FINAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT OUR CWA DURING A
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...IT IS FINALLY
ENCOURAGING TO SEE THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT.
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS STILL HANGING ON TO ONE FINAL WAVE IN THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO A BIT LONGER THAN THE EURO...IT'S STRONG CUTOFF
UPPER LOW SOLUTION IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM LAST NIGHT'S
RUN (WHICH WOULD HAVE BEEN A 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATION ANOMALY FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR) HAS FINALLY BEEN PURGED. THEREFORE...WE SHOULD
FINALLY GET BACK TO MORE TYPICAL SUNNY AND DRY SPRINGTIME
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING LATE IN THE WEEK IS
GRADUALLY REPLACED BY ZONAL FLOW THEN WEAK RIDGING BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE 12 UTC ECMWF IS SHOWING A POTENTIAL WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING JUST TO OUR SOUTH BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BUT SINCE THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BEEN PART OF EARLIER
RUNS...WILL DISCARD IT'S POTENTIAL POPS FOR MONDAY UNLESS A
STRONGER SIGNAL SHOWS UP IN THE NEW 00 UTC RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS LAID OUT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
VARYING CIG RESTRICTIONS NOW BEING REPORTED WITH KECP...AND KTLH
WITH MVFR CIGS AND THE REMAINING TERMINALS STILL REPORTING IFR. MAIN
AREA OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS/STORMS IS SOUTH OF KTLH AND KVLD...HOWEVER
A BRIEF SHOWER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT THESE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. STILL APPEARS THAT WE HAVE A SETUP FOR ANOTHER
LOW CIG EVENT (IFR/LIFR) AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT...THEN STALL SOUTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT...ALONG WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 15 KT TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   54  72  60  78  63 /  20  20  20  70  60
PANAMA CITY   59  69  63  73  64 /  10  20  40  60  60
DOTHAN        50  68  59  75  62 /   0  10  40  70  50
ALBANY        46  65  57  75  60 /   0  20  40  70  50
VALDOSTA      52  72  60  78  63 /  20  20  20  70  60
CROSS CITY    58  76  62  79  65 /  20  20  20  60  50
APALACHICOLA  62  71  65  76  67 /  20  20  30  60  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

REST OF DISCUSSION...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
604 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-291015-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
604 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 /504 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AREAS OF FOG..SOME LOCALLY DENSE IS POSSIBLE EARLY. OTHERWISE...A
COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA COUNTIES TODAY.
AIDED BY PASSING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. ANY STORMS THAT
FORM HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. AN ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE.
THE FOCUS OF THESE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN BIG BEND AND
THE ADJACENT WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE GULF
WATERS TONIGHT WITH THE THREAT OF RAIN ENDING ACROSS ALL BUT THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND GULF WATERS.

THIS RAIN WILL PERHAPS HERALD THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME DROUGHT
RELIEF ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...WHERE ONGOING WILDFIRES HAVE
BECOME HAZARDOUS DUE TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND VERY WARM AND DRY
WEATHER SINCE THE IDES OF MARCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE ON TUESDAY...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RAIN WILL DECREASE AGAIN FRIDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
AMATEUR RADIO SUPPORT WILL BE NEEDED...BUT RADIO OPERATORS ARE
ASKED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY FOR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

BLOCK

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
547 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

FLZ013-026-282230-
CALHOUN-LIBERTY-
547 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR CALHOUN AND
LIBERTY COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 630 PM EDT/530 PM CDT/

AT 445 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN...OR NEAR KENNYS MILL...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3032 8514 3049 8521 3060 8489 3053 8488
      3053 8482 3052 8481 3052 8479 3047 8478
      3046 8472 3042 8471 3042 8468
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 252DEG 19KT 3043 8507

42-DVD

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>