Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
335 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

.SYNOPSIS...04 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD A STRONGER SURFACE
LOW EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS IN NORTH CAROLINA. A SOMEWHAT
COOLER...BUT MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS WAS FILTERING IN FROM THE
NORTH. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND WAS KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S.

VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
TROF AXIS WAS ALREADY LEADING TO SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WELL SOUTH OF OUR MARINE AREA THIS MORNING...AND THIS
SHOULD ONLY INCREASE AS THE TROF AXIS NEARS OUR REGION LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY).
ONE LAST DAY OF RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION BEFORE WE
FINALLY CLEAR OUT THIS STORMY PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE SINCE
SATURDAY. APPROACHING TROF AXIS WILL LEAD TO STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM
AT THE SURFACE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A FEW LIKELY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR...PRIMARILY IN OUR 3 SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND
COUNTIES. THE MODEL GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT WITH THE MAIN TROF NEARING THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TAKE THE RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. FOR
TODAY...WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG
BEND. WILL ALSO BE MENTIONING THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID MORNING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR INCREASES. THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE A DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT...GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION.

AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...THE DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE. A PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE AMPLIFYING EAST COAST TROF WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME
WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL LIKELY KEEP FRIDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER...UNTIL THEY SCATTER OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE TROF WILL PULL AWAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY).
THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WHEN COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE ROCKIES...A RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND A VERY BROAD TROUGH SHIFTING
EAST FURTHER OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVERHEAD WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS ANOTHER SYSTEM TAKES
SHAPE OUT WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. HERE LOCALLY...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE KEEPING CONDITIONS QUITE DRY SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE VERY
PLEASANT CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS TIME WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE LOW 80S AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A GRADUAL MOISTENING TREND WILL BE
EXPECTED AS THE NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MAKES ITS
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY WITH THIS NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH...THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING. THEY INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THIS TIME WITH THE FROPA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...RAINFALL PROBABILITIES WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY...THEN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE IMPROVING. THE BEST SHOWER/TSTM
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE TLH/VLD SITES AND FURTHER SOUTHEAST
OVER THE FL BIG BEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH AND THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH OVER THE
AREA TODAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION OVER THE
OTHER SITES THROUGH THIS TIME (ECP/DHN/ABY). HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INSERT INTO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
OFF TO THE NE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA AND DRIER AIR ALONG WITH
LIGHT NW WINDS FILL IN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THROUGH THIS
SECOND HALF OF THE 24 HR PERIOD FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCASIONALLY BE NEAR CAUTIONARY
CRITERIA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN LEGS THIS EVENING...AND THEN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE MARINE AREA ON FRIDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER TO
THE MARINE AREA ON SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY
AND GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD OVER THE AREA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA LIFTS NE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. DESPITE THE RECENT RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...HIGH DISPERSIONS COMBINED WITH DRY AIR
WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS
ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   75  48  76  51  83 /  40  10  10   0  10
PANAMA CITY   70  52  74  58  77 /  30  10  10   0  10
DOTHAN        67  45  74  52  79 /  20  10  10  10  10
ALBANY        67  45  72  52  79 /  30  10  10  10  10
VALDOSTA      76  48  75  52  81 /  60  10  10   0  10
CROSS CITY    77  50  75  54  81 /  80  10  10   0  10
APALACHICOLA  75  54  74  58  77 /  40  10  10   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALHOUN...CENTRAL WALTON...COASTAL
     BAY...COASTAL DIXIE...COASTAL FRANKLIN...COASTAL GULF...
     COASTAL JEFFERSON...COASTAL TAYLOR...COASTAL WAKULLA...
     GADSDEN...HOLMES...INLAND BAY...INLAND DIXIE...INLAND
     FRANKLIN...INLAND GULF...INLAND JEFFERSON...INLAND TAYLOR...
     INLAND WAKULLA...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...LAFAYETTE...
     LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...SOUTH WALTON...WASHINGTON.

GM...NONE.

&&

AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/LONG TERM...GIBBS
REST OF DISCUSSION...GODSEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
545 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-011000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
545 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011 /445 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY
COMBINING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION....WHERE A FEW COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CREATE A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACHES WITH A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE FRANKLIN COUNTY BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY
EVENING...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY TUESDAY. THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE COMPUTER GUIDANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM
COULD DELIVER ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER REGION-WIDE ON
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

38-GODSEY