Small Craft Advisory 6, NWS Tallahassee, FL

569 
WHUS72 KTAE 251425
MWWTAE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
925 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

.AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE
NORTHEAST GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS
GEORGIA AND INTO THE CAROLINA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS...AND ABOVE NORMAL TIDES
ARE ALL EXPECTED TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE RAIN WILL LIKELY END LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE
CAROLINAS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH...LIKELY AT ADVISORY
LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF COAST.

GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-252230-
/O.CON.KTAE.SC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-110127T0000Z/
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
925 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: SOUTH NEAR 20 KNOTS TODAY...BECOMING WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS
  ON WEDNESDAY.

* SEAS: 4 TO 6 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 5 TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE TODAY.
  WEDNESDAY...SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 6 TO 8 FEET 
  OFFSHORE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS...
AND/OR SEAS 7 FEET OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

FOURNIER

615 
WHUS72 KTAE 251936
MWWTAE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
236 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM MOBILE TO NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT
FROM SOUTH TO WEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT BEING DRAGGED THROUGH THE
MARINE AREA BY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE BY THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GULF COAST.

GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-260345-
/O.CON.KTAE.SC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-110127T0000Z/
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
236 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING...BECOMING WEST AROUND
  20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS WEDNESDAY 
  MORNING.

* SEAS: 4 TO 6 FEET...BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET LATE TONIGHT.
  WEDNESDAY...SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS...
AND/OR SEAS 7 FEET OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

FOURNIER

937 
WHUS72 KTAE 260223
MWWTAE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
923 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH GEORGIA TO NORTH
CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL THEN END AS WINDS SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO WEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT BEING DRAGGED THROUGH THE
MARINE AREA BY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IN ITS WAKE...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BECOME GUSTY...AND ALONG WITH SEAS INCREASE TO
ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BY THURSDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF COAST.

GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-261030-
/O.CON.KTAE.SC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-110127T0000Z/
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
923 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS...BECOMING WEST AROUND 20
  KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
  MORNING.

* SEAS: 4 TO 6 FEET...BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET LATE TONIGHT.  
  WEDNESDAY...SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS...
AND/OR SEAS 7 FEET OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

BLOCK/FOURNIER

903 
WHUS72 KTAE 260924
MWWTAE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
424 AM EST WED JAN 26 2011

...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

.NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY TO STRONG SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO RAMP DOWNWARD...SO WILL KEEP THE
CURRENT END TIME OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. MUCH LIGHTER NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...
WITH SOME MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS RETURNING FOR FRIDAY. THESE
HIGHER WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
SEAS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.


GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-261600-
/O.CON.KTAE.SC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-110127T0000Z/
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
424 AM EST WED JAN 26 2011

...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

* WINDS: NORTHWEST AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS EARLY
  THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY DECREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS
  AFTERNOON.

* SEAS: 4 TO 6 FEET NEARSHORE AND 6 TO 8 FEET OFFSHORE...EXCEPT 3
  TO 4 FEET IN APALACHEE BAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS...
AND/OR SEAS 7 FEET OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

17-GOULD

690 
WHUS72 KTAE 261456
MWWTAE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
956 AM EST WED JAN 26 2011

...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

.WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH
LIGHTER NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY... WITH SOME
MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS RETURNING FOR FRIDAY. THESE HIGHER WINDS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED
TO LAST THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-262300-
/O.CON.KTAE.SC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-110127T0000Z/
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
956 AM EST WED JAN 26 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

* WINDS: NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

* SEAS: 4 TO 6 FEET NEARSHORE AND 6 TO 9 FEET OFFSHORE...EXCEPT
        2 TO 4 FEET IN APALACHEE BAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS...
AND/OR SEAS 7 FEET OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

FOURNIER

265 
WHUS72 KTAE 261837
MWWTAE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
137 PM EST WED JAN 26 2011

...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

.WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-270000-
/O.CON.KTAE.SC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-110127T0000Z/
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
137 PM EST WED JAN 26 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

* WINDS: NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* SEAS: 4 TO 6 FEET NEARSHORE AND 6 TO 9 FEET OFFSHORE...EXCEPT 2 TO
  4 FEET IN APALACHEE BAY. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET NEAR SHORE
  AND 4 TO 6 FEET OFFSHORE AFTER 7 PM. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS...
AND/OR SEAS 7 FEET OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

FOURNIER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
351 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND THIS
AFTERNOON...

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY THROUGH THE AREA...PROVIDING RAIN AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MEXICO BEACH TO
TALLAHASSEE TO VALDOSTA WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. TWO POTENTIAL SCENARIOS FOR THE POSSIBLE
EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION ARE DISCUSSED BELOW. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. DRY WX IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ON
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE COME TO A CONSENSUS ON
THE MAIN LOW TRACKING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SOME INTERESTING THINGS WILL HAPPEN SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO TODAY THAT COULD INFLUENCE THE FORECAST LOCALLY.
LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...A SUBTLE BUT PERHAPS IMPORTANT ~100
KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK AT 250 MB IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS
CENTRAL MEXICO. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THIS JET AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID-LATITUDE JET
WILL BE ALIGNED IN A VERY FAVORABLE POSITION FOR RISING MOTION OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...THIS WILL BE HAPPENING
NEAR AND OVER A WARM EDDY IN THE LOOP CURRENT WHERE MORE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMICS EXIST. THE END RESULT WILL LIKELY BE VERY ROBUST
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN THE FORM
OF A SQUALL LINE AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
EASTWARD THIS EVENING. THESE VERY INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THEY MAY ACT TO LOWER PRESSURES AND
DEVELOP A MESO-LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SQUALL LINE THAT MAY
DISRUPT OUR LOCAL MOISTURE INFLUX TO SOME EXTENT. IN THIS FIRST
SCENARIO...THE END RESULT WOULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AND A REDUCED CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS LOCALLY SINCE ALL OF THE
THERMODYNAMICS AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE WOULD
BE SOUTH OF THE AREA.

HOWEVER...IF THAT DEVELOPMENT IS DELAYED SLIGHTLY...THEN
FAVORABLE LIFT WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID-LATITUDE
JET LOCALLY COUPLED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE
LOW COULD ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP FURTHER NORTHWARD INITIALLY. IN
FACT...OUR LOCAL 4 KM WRF IS SHOWING A RATHER IMPRESSIVE LOOKING
QLCS SQUALL LINE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS TODAY. THE LIMITING FACTOR IN THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE
LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH FLOW OFF THE COOL SHELF
WATERS OF APALACHEE BAY. THE LOCAL WRF...WHICH ASSIMILATES THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODIS SST DATA...DOES NOT SHOW ANY SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY IN THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OVER
THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. IN THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND REGION...THE LOCAL
HIGH RES WRF ACTUALLY MANAGES TO DEVELOP UPWARDS OF 500-800 J/KG OF
SBCAPE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS HAPPENS IN THE MODEL
BECAUSE IT HAS THE SURFACE WINDS IN THAT AREA MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
THAN DUE SOUTHERLY...WHICH KEEPS THE SURFACE FLOW TRAJECTORY MORE
AWAY FROM APALACHEE BAY AND ALLOWS A RICHER INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM
THE FL PENINSULA. THIS IS A MUCH MORE THREATENING SCENARIO WHERE WE
END UP WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY AND BACKED SURFACE WINDS THAT COULD
LOCALLY ENHANCE HELICITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING QLCS SQUALL LINE.

AS WITH MOST CONVECTIVE SITUATIONS...IT IS HARD TO SAY WHICH
SCENARIO WILL HAPPEN DUE TO THE INHERENT DIFFICULTIES OF EXPLICITLY
FORECASTING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITH AT LEAST SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING
THE MORE THREATENING SCENARIO...DO NOT WANT TO DOWNPLAY THE SEVERE
THREAT FOR THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND TOO MUCH AND HAVE INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS IN THE AREAS THAT SPC
HAS HIGHLIGHTED UNDER A SLIGHT RISK.

.LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...AS WE HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING DURING THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...THE AIR MASS BUILDING
IN BEHIND TODAY'S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OF CONTINENTAL
ORIGIN AND NOT ARCTIC LIKE SO MANY OF THE PRECEDING SFC RIDGES SO
FAR THIS WINTER. THEREFORE...AFTER A COUPLE OF COOL DAYS IN THE
SHORT TERM ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH ONLY LIGHT FREEZES
EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNINGS...A VERY WELCOME MODERATING TREND IS NOW EXPECTED FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WHILE LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DURING THIS PERIOD...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE FROM THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY...TO THE
BALMY MID TO UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE 00 UTC GFS AND
THE OLDER 12 UTC ECMWF... BUT MAINLY JUST IN THE POP
CATEGORY...WITH THE MILD WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE. THE ECMWF HAS
A VERY WET SOLUTION FOR TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS WOULD ARGUE FOR
HIGHER POPS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR TUESDAY. THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE POPS
TO THE FCST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW END
POPS IN THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A BETTER CONSENSUS CAN BE REACHED.
AS FOR THE NEXT POTENTIAL ARCTIC OUTBREAK WE HAVE BEEN KEEPING AN
EYE ON...IT STILL COULD VERY WELL BE IN THE CARDS FOR NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS PLENTY OF ARCTIC AIR IN NW CANADA IS
STILL WAITING FOR AN OPPORTUNITY TO PLUNGE SE BACK INTO THE SE
U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...
IT WILL CERTAINLY BE A MUCH MORE CHALLENGING AVIATION FCST TONIGHT
THAN IT WAS AT THIS SAME TIME ON MONDAY NIGHT...AS A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS NOW GETTING ORGANIZED JUST OFF THE SW
COAST OF LA MOVES E-NE THROUGH OUR CWA TODAY. AS THIS LOW
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE
WEST...A LARGE SWATH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL OUT IN
ITS ADVANCE DUE TO A PERIOD OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT.
INITIALLY...THIS RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AT TIMES
AND SHOULD FALL FROM MAINLY VFR LEVEL CIGS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS SHOULD
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS
THE HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
(WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER AT TLH AND VLD) ACCELERATE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE RAIN
LINGERING AFTER 00 UTC WED IN MOST LOCATIONS. EVEN AFTER THE RAIN
ENDS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG
AFTER THE LOW MOVES THROUGH...SO TIMING THE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ON WED. SHOULD BE QUITE CHALLENGING AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...AND ABOVE
NORMAL TIDES TO THE MARINE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE RAIN WILL LIKELY END
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS...WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH...LIKELY AT ADVISORY LEVELS. THE SURF
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HIGH SURF CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME. THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST
TIDES 1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON COASTAL RESIDENTS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN POSSIBLY LINGERING WELL INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. FURTHERMORE...THE NEXT AIR MASS BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS
LOW WILL LIKELY ONLY BE DRY ENOUGH TO POSE A THREAT TO THE FL BIG
BEND AND PANHANDLE...AS THE CRITERIA OF SUB 35 PERCENT RH OVER FL
WILL BE EASIER TO REACH THAN THE MORE DIFFICULT SUB 25 PERCENT
REQUIREMENT FOR OUR AL AND GA ZONES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   63  48  56  30  56 / 100  40  10   0   0
PANAMA CITY   62  46  54  34  54 / 100  40  10   0   0
DOTHAN        51  41  52  31  54 / 100  40  10   0   0
ALBANY        50  42  51  29  54 / 100  40  10   0   0
VALDOSTA      61  50  57  34  57 / 100  60  10   0   0
CROSS CITY    68  52  62  32  58 / 100  80  10   0   0
APALACHICOLA  64  49  57  35  55 / 100  50  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA
     FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO
     KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA
     TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO
     APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA
     TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...DVD
LONG TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...GOULD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
837 PM EST MON JAN 24 2011

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-251100-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
837 PM EST MON JAN 24 2011 /737 PM CST MON JAN 24 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AND APPROACH OUR REGION.
SHOWERS AND AREAS OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK OUT OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAWN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION AS WELL AS
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MEXICO
BEACH TO TALLAHASSEE TO VALDOSTA. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF AROUND PERRY...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. AT THIS TIME THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW...
HOWEVER THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT IS LIKELY THAT LOCALIZED AREA WILL SEE HIGHER
TOTALS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SPREAD ACROSS THE DURATION OF THE DAY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT.

DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER
SPOTTERS ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND SHOULD MONITOR FUTURE
FORECASTS IN CASE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
INCREASES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

MROCZKA