Small Craft Advisory 19, NWS Tallahassee, FL

066 
WHUS72 KTAE 052026
MWWTAE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
426 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT FOR
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...

...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT...

...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WHEN THE
GALE WARNING EXPIRES UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING...

.THE DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS TROPICAL STORM LEE IS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AND THEN INTO NORTH GEORGIA
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM WEST OT EAST ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE STRONG BY SEPTEMBER STANDARDS
AND WE ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS FROM
TODAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE INTO THE
ADVISORY CATEGORY ON TUESDAY WITH SEAS FINALLY DROPPING BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS TUESDAY BY EVENING.

GMZ750-770-060230-
/O.EXT.KTAE.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110906T0800Z/
/O.EXT.KTAE.SC.Y.0019.110906T0800Z-110907T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
426 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS...
...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* SEAS: BUILDING TO 11 TO 17 FEET THIS EVENING...THEN SUBSIDING TO
  8 TO 12 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT AND 4 TO 7 FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* WINDS: SOUTH 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS THROUGH
  MIDNIGHT...SHIFTING TO WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS...SUSTAINED OR IN
FREQUENT GUSTS...ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN
GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED
VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE
PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE
CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS...
AND/OR SEAS 7 FEET OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

GMZ730-755-765-775-060230-
/O.EXT.KTAE.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110906T1400Z/
/O.EXT.KTAE.SC.Y.0019.110906T1400Z-110907T0000Z/
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
426 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS...
...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY. 

* SEAS: BUILDING TO 8 TO 12 FEET OFFSHORE TONIGHT...5 TO 8 FEET IN
  APALACHEE BAY AND NEARSHORE. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET BY
  TUESDAY AFTERNOON OFFSHORE...2 TO 4 FEET IN APALACHEE BAY.

* WINDS: SOUTH 20 TO 25 KNOTS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH
  GUSTS 35 TO 40 KNOTS TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS...SUSTAINED OR IN
FREQUENT GUSTS...ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN
GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED
VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE
PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE
CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS...
AND/OR SEAS 7 FEET OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

18-WOOL

927 
WHUS72 KTAE 060228
MWWTAE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1028 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
WESTERN LEGS AND UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR THE EASTERN LEGS...

...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WHEN THE
GALE WARNING EXPIRES UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALL LEGS...

.GALE FORCE GUSTS CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...WITH
THE STRONGER WINDS SPREADING EASTWARD. THESE GALE FORCE GUSTS
SHOULD END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...OVER THE
WESTERN WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND ACROSS THE EAST BY MID TUESDAY
MORNING. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE UNTIL SEAS FINALLY
SUBSIDE BELOW CRITERIA LATE IN THE DAY. LOOKING DOWN THE ROAD...A
PERIOD OF OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF THE WEEK.


GMZ750-770-060900-
/O.CON.KTAE.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110906T0800Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.SC.Y.0019.110906T0800Z-110907T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1028 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY. 

* SEAS: 10 TO 15 FEET THIS EVENING...THEN SUBSIDING TO 8 TO 12
  FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT AND 4 TO 7 FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* WINDS: WEST 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS THROUGH
  MIDNIGHT...DECREASING 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS...SUSTAINED OR IN
FREQUENT GUSTS...ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN
GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED
VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE
PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE
CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS...
AND/OR SEAS 7 FEET OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

GMZ730-755-765-775-060900-
/O.CON.KTAE.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110906T1400Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.SC.Y.0019.110906T1400Z-110907T0000Z/
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1028 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY. 

* SEAS: 8 TO 12 FEET EXCEPT 5 TO 8 FEET IN APALACHEE BAY. SEAS
  SUBSIDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT 2 TO 4 FEET
  IN APALACHEE BAY.

* WINDS: SOUTHWEST 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
  TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS...SUSTAINED OR IN
FREQUENT GUSTS...ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN
GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED
VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE
PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE
CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS...
AND/OR SEAS 7 FEET OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

17-GOULD

610 
WHUS72 KTAE 060726
MWWTAE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
326 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...THE GALE WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING
FOR THE EASTERN LEGS HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS
EVENING FOR ALL LEGS...

.OVERNIGHT...BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT GUSTS HAVE DROPPED
BELOW GALE FORCE CRITERIA OVER ALL THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH MID MORNING...WINDS
AND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH FURTHER AND WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THIS EVENING. THEREFORE THE GALE
WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN WATERS HAS BEEN
DROPPED AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE
WATERS.

GMZ730-755-765-775-061530-
/O.CAN.KTAE.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110906T1400Z/
/O.EXT.KTAE.SC.Y.0019.110906T0726Z-110907T0000Z/
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
326 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS CANCELLED THE
GALE WARNING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL
8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

SEAS: 8 TO 12 FEET EXCEPT 5 TO 8 FEET IN APALACHEE BAY. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT 2 TO 4 FEET IN
APALACHEE BAY.

WINDS: SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS.
WINDS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS...
AND/OR SEAS 7 FEET OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

GMZ750-770-061530-
/O.CAN.KTAE.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110906T0800Z/
/O.EXT.KTAE.SC.Y.0019.110906T0726Z-110907T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
326 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING.

SEAS:8 TO 12 FEET SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS: WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33
KNOTS... AND/OR SEAS 7 FEET OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

BLOCK

540 
WHUS72 KTAE 061449
MWWTAE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1049 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

.THE COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WATERS THIS MORNING. WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT HAVE
SHIFTED NORTHWEST AND SUBSIDED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. RESIDUAL
SEAS WILL TAKE A WHILE LONGER TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OFFSHORE LEGS AND WILL LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ALLOWING SEAS TO
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. 

GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-062030-
/O.CON.KTAE.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-110907T0000Z/
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1049 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

SEAS: 6 TO 8 FEET SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET THIS EVENING.

WINDS: NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS...
AND/OR SEAS 7 FEET OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

14-MROCZKA

487 
WHUS72 KTAE 061954
MWWTAE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
354 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

.A COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE FORECAST WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWEST AND SUBSIDED BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. RESIDUAL SEAS WILL TAKE A WHILE LONGER TO
SUBSIDE....HOWEVER SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED ENOUGH TO FINALLY END THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS WILL STILL NEED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TONIGHT.

GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-062100-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-110907T0000Z/
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
354 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS CANCELLED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. 

A COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE FORECAST WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWEST AND SUBSIDED BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. RESIDUAL SEAS WILL TAKE A WHILE LONGER TO
SUBSIDE....HOWEVER SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED ENOUGH TO FINALLY END THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS WILL STILL NEED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

14-MROCZKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR GALE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
600 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

...IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE TO BE FELT INTO TUESDAY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS LOCAL REGION...

...TORNADO THREAT PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF APALACHICOLA RIVER
TODAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
DURING LATE SUNDAY EVENING...TROPICAL STORM LEE WEAKENED AND WAS
DOWNGRADED INTO A DEPRESSION. AT 2 AM EDT...IT WAS LOCATED NEAR THE
SRN BORDER OF LA/MS OR ABOUT 60 ESE OF ALEXANDRIA LA...AND HAS
SHIFTED TO MORE ENE AT 7 MPH. THE NAM HAS THE CENTER ABOUT 20 NM SE
AND THE GFS ABOUT 20 S OF OBSERVED POSITION.

RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT OUTER BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING NNE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO OUR
CWA...WITH SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL PUSHING INLAND FROM THE
COAST. THE HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS WAS WITH A BAND
FROM LIBERTY...GULF AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES SWD INTO THE GULF.
ALTHOUGH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAS SUPPRESSED THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...THE PERSISTENCE OF FAVORABLE SHEAR/SRH WITHIN THE
LOWEST 1-2 KM MEANS WE CAN NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO REST OF OVERNIGHT.

AT UPPER LEVELS...
THE LARGE SCALE LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH
RIDGING OVER THE WEST HALF AND SHARP TROUGHING OVER THE EAST HALF OF
U.S WITH MAIN AXIS FROM ONTARIO SWD INTO NRN GULF WITH 576DM CUTOFF
LOW OVER NE LA...AND A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. DURING THE NEXT 24
HRS...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE ERN U.S. MODELS
SUGGEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING NWD WITH REMNANTS
OF LEE. HOWEVER...ON THE EAST OF THE LOW...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL
BE IN PLACE INTO TUESDAY WITH MODEL FORECASTS SHOWING AN AXIS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD ALSO BE NEAR PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL
JET FAVORING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...
MAIN FEATURES ARE LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT SSW THRU TN
VALLEY TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE THEN SWD INTO GULF AND WWD INTO TX.
THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL DIVERGENCE OF FUTURE TRACK OF LEE. NAM AND
CANADIAN ARE ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE WITH UPPER TROUGH/
CLOSED LOW YIELDING A SURFACE REFLECTION ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THE
MODEL SPREAD. LATEST GFS CONTINUE WITH FASTER NEWD PROGRESSION.
THE KEY DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE NAM EXTENDS ITS OVERALL TROUGH ALOFT
FARTHER EWD THAN THE GFS THRU SHORT TERM.

BASED ON NHC TRACK...DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE REMNANTS OF. LEE
SHOULD TURN TO THE NE WITH THE REMNANT LOW OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
TUES MORNING...NRN ALABAMA BY LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE AND ACROSS TN
VALLEY ON TUES NIGHT. IT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY EXTRA-TROPICAL
WITH TIME AS IT BEGINS TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER SHORT WAVE
AND MERGE WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH MOVES ACROSS GULF COAST ON
TUES MORNING. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT REMNANT LOW MAY DEEPEN AND
THAT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD MAY ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF 50+ KT
WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SRN
HALF OF AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE INTO GA TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN
ENHANCED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT. IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

ALTHOUGH LEE HAS WEAKENED INTO A DEPRESSION...THERE REMAINS A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY. THE GREATEST RISK SHOULD REMAIN INVOF
THE NERN QUADRANT WHERE MOST FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL VEERING/SHEAR WILL
REMAIN...NAMELY OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TODAY. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA FROM W TO E LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING BRINGING
AN END TO THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. WILL TAPER POPS FROM NW TO SE
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER THE REMNANTS OF LEE WOBBLE OFF TO THE
NW...MODELS IMPLY THAT H5/H2 ERN TROUGH SLOWS AS IT MOVES INTO
OH/VALLEY WHICH WOULD SLOW THE EWD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT WHICH MAY
LINGER NEAR SE BIG BEND ON TUES EVE. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE SE ZONES THRU EVE.

LOCAL IMPACTS OF LEE
AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE AND SE AL WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF THE E TO AS LOW AS 1
INCHES OVER S CENTRAL GA. CONSIDERING RAINFALL THAT HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED...OVERALL STORM TOTALS WILL EXCEED 10 INCHES ACROSS PARTS
OF THE PANHANDLE. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY MORNING
FOR THE CWA AND WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION IN CASE LOCAL
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY.

ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL THE BATTERING SURF. THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY AND ASSOCIATED HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS REMAIN
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE PERSISTS INTO TUES
MORNING WITH THE MAIN THREAT COMING DURING THE TUE MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE.

VERY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERATE WINDS AROUND 25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS COASTAL FLORIDA...20 TO 25 MPH OVER ADJOINING
COUNTIES. THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED.

FINALLY...SHEAR PROFILES WILL AGAIN SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF
TORNADOES TODAY (SEE BELOW).

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TODAY...BASED ON LOCAL SEVERE WX CONFIDENCE TOOL...THERE IS A 20-25%
CHANCE OF SEVERE WX ACROSS FL PANHANDLE (5-10% CHANCE OF A TORNADO)
...DECREASING TO 15-20% CHANCE ACROSS SE ALA AND DECREASING EWD TO
NIL CHANCES ACROSS ERN COUNTIES. THE TORNADO FOCUS WILL BE THIS AFTN
WITHIN AN ENHANCED SHEAR AND MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT AND WITH
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH STORM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
INCREASING IN THE WARM SECTOR. SATELLITE ALREADY HINTING OF
MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPING ON BACK SIDE OF LEE AND THIS COULD
SPREAD ENE BY  AFTERNOON...OR ESPECIALLY BY EVENING INCREASING
CHANCES OF LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES. SPC HAS THE
ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING 10% TORNADO
THREAT FOR WRN COUNTIES AND 5% THREAT FOR ERN COUNTIES AND WILL
INSERT T+ WRN HALF OF CWA. CAT POPS EXCEPT FOR LIKELY SE BIG BEND.
HEAVY RAIN IN BANDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ON ALREADY SATURATED
GROUND A GOOD BET. HIGHS MID 80S COAST TO LOW 90S S/CNTRL GA.

TONIGHT...WITH COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE EWD...POTENTIAL FOR
SQUALL LINE TYPE FEATURE TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LOCAL CONFIDENCE TOOL SHOWS AROUND 20-25% CHANCE
OF SEVERE WX ACROSS ERN BIG BEND DECREASING WWD TO NIL ACROSS WRN
MOST PANHANDLE. 50-60% POPS. LOWS FROM UPPER 60S SE ALA TO UPPER 70S
SE BIG BEND.

TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EWD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUES
WITH SHARP NW-SE POP GRADIENT AND THEN LIKELY STALL NEAR SE BIG
BEND. BY EVE. SPC HAS A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT (5%) FOR SEVERE WX
ACROSS SRN GA AND NRN FL. AS NOTED ABOVE...EXPECT AN INCREASE OF
WINDS SE OF LEE'S CENTER WITH BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
30-40% POPS WRN HALF...TO 60-70% ERN HALF DAYTIME. 20-40% W-E POP
GRADIENT AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY....0-40% NW-SE POP GRADIENT.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF DRY AS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF LEE. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THE FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FUNNELING A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL
U.S. IN ADDITION...RELATIVELY LOW HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. BY NEXT WEEKEND...LAST FEW RUNS OF GFS ARE TRYING TO
DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS
TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AND WILL LEAN HEAVILY TO THE DRIER ECMWF
AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...PREDAWN OBS INDICATED BORDERLINE GALE WARNING CRITERIA WRN
WATERS...SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN
WINDS AFTER SUNRISE SO HOISTED GALE WARNING FOR WRN WATERS THRU
TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE SCA ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WITH CONDITIONS
NOT SUBSIDING BELOW CRITERIA UNTIL TUE NIGHT. ALSO WINDS MAY
APPROACH GALE FORCE FOR A TIME... ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS OVER THE
PANHANDLE WATERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND MAY REACH 12 TO 15
FEET. THE HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE THIS MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE... OPERATORS OF SMALL OR EVEN MODERATE
SIZED CRAFT SHOULD NOT PLAN ON VENTURING FROM PORT UNTIL WINDS AND
SEAS SUBSIDE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...TAF FORECAST WILL REMAIN COMPLEX WHILE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LEE CONTINUES TO IMPACT AREA TERMINALS. CIGS WILL BE UP
AND DOWN OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES PRIMARY
RAIN BAND WILL AFFECT KTLH AND KABY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN DEVELOPING AND IMPACTING THE OTHER TERMINALS BY
AROUND SUNRISE. MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   90  75  87  67  88 /  90  50  50  20  20
PANAMA CITY   86  74  83  68  86 /  90  40  30  20  20
DOTHAN        87  68  84  63  85 /  90  50  30  20  10
ALBANY        89  73  83  64  83 /  90  60  40  20  20
VALDOSTA      92  75  87  66  88 /  90  50  60  40  30
CROSS CITY    89  78  86  71  88 /  70  50  70  40  40
APALACHICOLA  89  78  84  70  86 /  90  50  40  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.

GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAKER...CALHOUN...CLAY...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...
     EARLY...GRADY...LEE...MILLER...MITCHELL...QUITMAN...
     RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL.

FL...WIND ADVISORY FOR COASTAL AND A FEW INLAND PANHANDLE COUNTIES
     THIS MORNING UNTIL THIS EVENING...

     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL BAY...COASTAL DIXIE...
     COASTAL FRANKLIN...COASTAL GULF...COASTAL JEFFERSON...
     COASTAL TAYLOR...COASTAL WAKULLA...SOUTH WALTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALHOUN...CENTRAL WALTON...COASTAL BAY...COASTAL
     FRANKLIN...COASTAL GULF...COASTAL WAKULLA...GADSDEN...
     HOLMES...INLAND BAY...INLAND FRANKLIN...INLAND GULF...
     INLAND WAKULLA...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...LEON...LIBERTY...
     SOUTH WALTON...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL BAY...COASTAL GULF...SOUTH WALTON.

     HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ TUESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL BAY...COASTAL FRANKLIN...
     COASTAL GULF...SOUTH WALTON.

GM...GALE WARNING THRU TONIGHT WESTERN WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY ERN WATERS.

&&

BLOCK/CAMP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
637 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-061045-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
637 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2011 /537 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...THERE IS A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT (4 PM CDT)
THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...LEE HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES INLAND
OVER LOUISIANA THEN INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ADJACENT ALABAMA THROUGH
TONIGHT...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HIGH SEAS AND STRONG WINDS...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...
...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...
   WITH MAXIMUM STORM TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET
...WIND ADVISORY FOR COASTAL AND SOME INLAND PANHANDLE COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING
...GALE WARNING FOR WESTERN WATERS...
...TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES TODAY INTO TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE APALACHICOLA RIVER...

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...
...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER...UNTIL THE FRONT EXITS...
...IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY EVENING AS COLD FRONT AND
REMNANTS OF LEE MOVE EAST OF AREA...
...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED FOR THE TORNADO THREAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

BLOCK