Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
321 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...ROUTINE SUMMER SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
AGAIN AFFECT THE AREA TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY NIGHT ENHANCING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

TYPICAL SEA-BREEZE PATTERN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE SPECIFIC SEA-BREEZE REGIME PATTERN IS DIFFICULT TO
GAGE. A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE JUST TO OUR WEST.
THIS IS PLACING A COL OVER THE TLH FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW IS
THEREFORE LIGHT ENOUGH TO TECHNICALLY BE CLASSIFIED A PATTERN 1
(LIGHT FLOW). HOWEVER...A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW IS POSSIBLE AND MAY
ENHANCE THE SEA-BREEZE IN SPECIFIC AREAS. LOCAL MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN AREAS
WHICH WOULD FAVOR THIS WESTERLY FLOW SOLUTION. WILL ADJUST POPS TO
INDICATE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH TYPES AS A HYBRID MAY
ACTUALLY COME TO PASS. CANNOT RULE OUT OCCASIONAL SEVERE STORMS ON
TUESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE TO THE EAST THAN TO
THE WEST DUE TO THE AFORE MENTIONED MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE.

TOMORROW EVENING WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF ELEVATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL COMPLICATE THE TYPICAL SUMMER SEA/LAND-BREEZE PATTERN.
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS NEW MODEL RUNS
INDICATE THE COLD FRONT TO BE RATHER STOUT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ALSO EXPECT THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY).
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WED EVENING...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
ACROSS N AMERICA WILL FEATURE A TROUGH ALONG THE E COAST AND A RIDGE
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THU EVENING. THE
NW TO N FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN AN MCS THREAT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS TIME. BY FRI...THE TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD ACROSS THE AREA WED
NIGHT AND THEN STALL ON THU BEFORE DISSIPATING. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE N OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI AND THEN DRIFT S INTO THE
NRN GULF FOR SAT-MON. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MID AND UPPER 90S COMMON INLAND. A FEW SPOTS COULD TOUCH
100 THU AND FRI. AS FOR POPS...THEY WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH WE ARE ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO LAST WELL
INTO THE EVENING WED AND THU NIGHTS DUE TO POSSIBLE MCS ACTIVITY.
ONCE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIPS BACK S OF THE AREA...POPS SHOULD
GET CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SUN AND MON.

IN THE TROPICS...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT ANY SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DRIFT
VERY SLOWLY NWWD...POSSIBLY MAKING LANDFALL IN NE MEXICO WED NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO LINGER BACK OVER THE BAY
FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THAT AS WELL...SO THIS AREA WILL BE QUITE
UNSETTLED. THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA
OTHER THAN POSSIBLY SENDING SOME SWELLS NEWD IF THE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENS SUFFICIENTLY..WHICH IS DOUBTFUL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECTING GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...OUTSIDE OF THE TYPICAL SUMMER SHOWERS AND STORMS
WHICH WILL DEVELOP AS THE SEA-BREEZE PROPAGATES INLAND. EXPECT
LOCALIZED AND BRIEF VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING STORMS.
LATER THIS EVENING THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN WITH
REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL GA.
THIS DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS
TO THE NORTH OF KABY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT FOR KABY AND KVLD. WILL SOME UNCERTAINLY STILL WILL
MENTION PREVAILING LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE.
HOWEVER...SOME ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED WITH
FUTURE FORECASTS SHOULD THIS DISTURBANCE SHOW MORE CONFIDENT SIGNS
OF HEADING SOUTHWARD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...TYPICAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT....MAINLY NEAR THE COASTLINE. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE
COASTLINE ON THURSDAY AND WASH OUT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND A
SLOWLY APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WITH THE FRONT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD...
EXPECT A GOOD COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST. SLIGHTLY DRIER AND AND LOWER RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD RETURN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME
RED FLAG CONDITION ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   74  95  74  93  74 /  20  50  20  70  30
PANAMA CITY   77  90  77  90  77 /  10  40  10  60  30
DOTHAN        73  96  74  93  74 /  20  40  30  50  20
ALBANY        73  96  74  93  73 /  30  40  40  50  20
VALDOSTA      72  95  73  93  72 /  30  50  30  70  40
CROSS CITY    72  92  72  90  72 /  30  40  20  70  40
APALACHICOLA  76  90  77  89  77 /  10  40  10  60  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

LERICOS/WOOL/MROCZKA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
532 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-281000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
532 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2011 /432 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...INITIALLY WITH THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO POSSIBLY MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA FROM THE NORTH LATE
IN THE DAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. MANY OF THESE
STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

GOOD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT...ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD ACTIVELY RELAY DAMAGE REPORTS FROM THEIR
AREA...BUT A FORMAL ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

38-GODSEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
357 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E PANSEY              31.15N 85.16W
06/27/2011  E60.00 MPH       HOUSTON            AL   PUBLIC

            TREESDOWN ACROSS HIGHWAY 75.

0339 PM     HAIL             1 E PANSEY              31.15N 85.16W
06/27/2011  E1.00 INCH       HOUSTON            AL   PUBLIC

            HAIL LASTED 10 MIN.

&&

TODD.LERICOS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
310 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

FLZ013-272045-
CALHOUN FL-
310 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR CALHOUN COUNTY...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

AT 306 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 26 MILES SOUTH OF MARIANNA...OR NEAR FRINK...MOVING
SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO
PRODUCING NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. .

LAT...LON 3025 8509 3022 8536 3047 8535 3050 8515
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 346DEG 4KT 3039 8522

9-FOURNIER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
442 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

FLZ019-272115-
MADISON FL-
442 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MADISON COUNTY...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

AT 442 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES WEST OF MADISON...OR NEAR GREENVILLE...MOVING
SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO
PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3027 8339 3028 8347 3030 8347 3031 8382
      3032 8379 3036 8381 3038 8380 3038 8376
      3044 8372 3049 8373 3054 8370 3055 8364
      3059 8360 3051 8338
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 358DEG 6KT 3050 8368

9-FOURNIER