Red Flag Warning 81, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
337 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
DRY LOW/MID LEVEL AIR WILL PERSIST FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AND ACT TO KEEP AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES. IMPULSES DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL EAST COAST TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE WEAK
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE TO CREATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE WHERE THE DRY AIR IS AT ITS
WEAKEST...PRIMARILY EAST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY THROUGH TALLAHASSEE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND UPPER
80S ALONG THE COAST. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE...HEAT INDICIES WILL
REMAIN BELOW 100 DEGREES THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
THE LARGE SCALE LONGWAVE PATTERN COMMENCES IN THE NRN STREAM WITH A
TROUGH OVER WEST COAST...NEARLY FLAT FLOW EWD TO RIDGING OVER ERN
GREAT LAKES AND THEN A TROUGH LIFTING NEWD INTO WRN ATLC WITH AXIS
DOWN ERN SEABOARD TO GA. SRN STREAM MARKED BY LARGE_SEMI-PERMANENT
H5/H2 RIDGE FROM DESERT SW EWD TO HIGH OVER THE S/CNTRL
PLAINS...THEN A WEAKNESS EWD INTO WRN ATLC. 590DM HIGH OVER S/CNTRL
GULF OF MEX. SERIES OF H5 IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SRN RIDGE TOWARDS LOCAL AREA. AT
SURFACE...QUASI-STNRY FRONT FROM QUE SSW TO WRN KY/TN BORDER THEN
WWD TO LOW OVER KS. CLOSER TO HOME...RIDGE NOSING WWD FROM BAHAMAS
TOWARDS NE GULF.

WITH UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NEWD...WRN RIDGE MEANDERS EWD SAT THRU
MON CUTTING OFF BETTER LIFT FROM THE NORTH AND YIELDING A MODEST
DECREASE IN LOCAL MOISTURE. BEGINNING MON EVE...RIDGE RETREATS WWD
IN RESPONSE TO FORMER WRN TROUGH...WHICH HAD BEEN ADVANCING
ESE...AND HAS NOW DEEPENED DOWN EAST COAST WITH INCREASING LIFT AND
MOISTURE. HOWEVER BY TUES...THIS TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE
WITH UPSTREAM RIDGE ADVANCING EWD INTO WRN GULF...REACHING CNTRL
GULF ON WED. THIS AGAIN FAVORS NW STEERING FLOW WITH POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF UPSTREAM MCS'S SHIFTING INCREASINGLY SEWD AROUND THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH.

AT SURFACE...CNTRL FL RIDGE LIFTS NWD TO GA/FL BORDER BY EARLY SAT
WITH RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. AT SAME TIME...WITH DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...MID-SOUTH BOUNDARY BECOMES A COLD FRONT AND IS
DRAGGED SWD TO CNTRL GA BY MON EVE. ASSOCD OUTFLOWS DROPPING INTO
THE CWA WOULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. IN BETWEEN
FRONT AND RIDGE LIES CWA PUT IN WARM SECTOR WITH A NOTED INCREASE
IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FAVORING MORE ROBUST AND INLAND PENETRATING
SEABREEZE EACH AFTN. PWATS REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCH THRU THE PERIOD.
ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON LARGE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING WWD
OVER THE E/CNTRL CARIB SEA AND ITS POSSIBLE IMPACT ON LOCAL WEATHER
TOWARDS DAY 7 AND BEYOND.

WILL GO WITH LOW-MID SCT POPS SUN-WED DAYTIME/EARLY EVE PERIODS.
OTHERWISE...AOB WDLY SCT POPS. WITH AREA IN WARM SECTOR...MIN TEMPS
HOVER A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO EACH NIGHT. (AVG INLAND MIN TEMPS
AROUND 70 DEGREES). MAX TEMPS REMAIN 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO EACH
DAY. (AVG INLAND MAX TEMPS AROUND 91 DEGREES).

&&

.AVIATION...
AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS AND WINDS MAINLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.
ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE BRIEF MVFR MAINLY IN LIGHT HAZE REST
OF PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN CALM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
ONLY VERY SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS NEARSHORE EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SEABREEZE CIRCULATION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY AIRMASS WILL PERSIST TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR AROUND FOUR
HOURS AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HIGH
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE OFFSET BY LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS YIELDING
DISPERSIONS WELL BELOW 75. HOWEVER ERC VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 35
OVER LEON AND WAKULLA COUNTIES. THEREFORE A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES EFFECTIVE LATER TODAY. AFTER
TODAY...EXPECT A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAIN
CHANCES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   94  70  93  71  94 /  10  10  30  20  30
PANAMA CITY   90  72  89  74  89 /   0   0  20  10  30
DOTHAN        93  71  93  72  94 /   0   0  10   0  30
ALBANY        94  71  94  72  95 /  10   0  10  10  20
VALDOSTA      96  72  93  71  94 /  20  10  40  20  30
CROSS CITY    94  70  91  69  93 /  30  20  50  20  30
APALACHICOLA  90  73  90  75  90 /  10   0  20  10  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.

GA...NONE.

FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: INLAND WAKULLA...LEON.

GM...NONE.

&&

AVIATION/FIRE WX/LONG TERM...BLOCK
REST OF DISCUSSION...HARRIGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
312 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-181000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
312 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2011 /212 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NEAR SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START THE PERIOD
WITH HEAT INDICIES REMAINING BELOW 100 DEGREES. SATURDAY...HIGHS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDICIES OVER 100
DEGREES...BUT REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON BUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE
OF STORMS WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

HARRIGAN