Wind Advisory 20, NWS Sacramento, CA

805 
WWUS76 KSTO 262242
NPWSTO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
342 PM PDT SAT MAR 26 2011

CAZ016-017-019-262345-
/O.CAN.KSTO.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-110327T0000Z/
CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
342 PM PDT SAT MAR 26 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SACRAMENTO HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND
NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE
VALLEY. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...AND DECREASE AFTER DARK. 

$$
JHM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
940 AM PDT SAT MAR 26 2011

.DISCUSSION...
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORT WAVE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING INTO THE
PAC NW AND BRUSHING NORCAL IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORCAL.
STRONG LLJ OF 40+ PLUS KTS SHOWING UP AT 925 MBS FORECAST TO BUILD
SWD FROM THE NRN SAC INTO THE SRN SAC AND PORTION OF NRN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE
TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NWRN NV WITH NWLY FLOW BUILDING
IN BEHIND IT...WITH THE LINGERING FRONT WEAKENING OVER OUR AREA. WE
ARE EXPECTING TWO THINGS TO HAPPEN THIS AFTERNOON. ONE...THE
STRATIFORM RAIN SHOULD END OVER NORCAL WITH PRECIP TURNING TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AS THE COLDER AIR SEEN IN THE IR
IMAGERY BEHIND THIS TROF MOVES INTO OUR NRN ZONES. WE WILL LEAVE IN
THE CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE NRN ZONES...BUT IN GENERAL THE PRECIP
SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE PRECIP OVER THE SIERNEV...AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NRN SAN JOAQUIN VLY/SRN MOTHERLODE
INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SECOND...THE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN AND THE WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY SEEING THIS WEAKENING
GRADIENT TREND SHOWING UP IN THE HOURLY GRADS CHART.

NORCAL IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS TONITE...WITH SUNDAY'S SYSTEM NEAR
50N/150W LOOKING SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AND FORECAST TRAJECTORY AS
TODAY'S. WILL LOOK AT QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE
AND MAKE A DECISION AS TO IF/WHAT TYPE OF HEADLINES WE MAY NEED WITH
THE SUNDAY SYSTEM. CONSIDERING THE RELATIVELY RAPID SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND THE LOWER PW PLUME INTERACTING WITH THE SUNDAY
SYSTEM...LEANING TOWARD ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW FOR THE MTNS
ESPECIALLY THE SIERRA.   JHM

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD PRECIP FALLING OVER INTERIOR NORCAL THIS MORNING AS NEXT
PACIFIC STORM MOVES ONSHORE. FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH FORECAST AREA TODAY...SHIFTING EAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BLENDED TPW SHOWING PWS AROUND .75 INCHES ALONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...SYSTEM DOES
HAVE GOOD DYNAMICS...SUPPORTED BY 125KT JET.  MODEL QPFS SUGGEST
ADVISORY TYPE SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE NORTHERN/COASTAL MOUNTAINS TODAY
WITH ONE TO TWO FEET FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA.
SNOW LEVELS THIS MORNING ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET...
AND PROGGED AROUND 3500 TO 4500 FEET TODAY. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY...MAINLY WITH FROPA. LATEST WRF_NMM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING ONLY LOCALIZED WIND SPEEDS AT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND
SHORT-LIVED . THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORIES IN THE
CENTRAL VALLEY ATTM AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SOME INSTABILITY....
200-400 J/KG...PROGGED FROM THE CENTRAL SAC VALLEY NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND THUS HAVE ADDED MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.

DECREASING SHOWERS TONIGHT AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND CWA COMES UNDER
SHORT WAVE RIDGING. HOWEVER THIS ONLY A SHORT LULL AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. HOWEVER THIS STORM NOT AS DEEP
AND QPF LOOKS LESS...RESULTING IN A MORE SHOWERY REGION FOR INTERIOR
NORCAL.

THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THEN PERSISTENT LONG WAVE
TROUGH LOOKS TO PROGRESS ALLOWING EPAC RIDGING TO RETURN ALONG THE
WEST COAST TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING.
HIGHS TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 70S THROUGHOUT WITH 50S TO 60S ELSEWHERE.

PCH

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...PERSISTENT LONG
WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL FINALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE MID-SECTION OF THE US DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
ALLOWING EPAC RIDGING TO RETURN ALONG THE WEST COAST. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK... THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER TROUGH BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND THOUGH
CONSISTENCY IS POOR LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY TIMING. TEMPS
WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 70S THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH
OREGON INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL LEAD TO SOME BREEZY NORTHERLY WIND
OVER INTERIOR NORCAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE VALLEY TODAY AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION BRINGING MORE RAIN THIS MORNING AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH
OF KSMF THIS AFTERNOON WITH INSTABILITY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 TO
25 KTS WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 34 KTS THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOUNTAINS WITH PRECIPITATION
AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 2000 FEET.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING WEST SLOPE NORTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA...WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE 3000
FEET FOR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE
COUNTY...SHASTA LAKE AREA/NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON SACRAMENTO VALLEY...
NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
630 AM PDT SAT MAR 26 2011

CAZ013>019-063-064-066>069-271400-
SHASTA LAKE AREA/NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY-
BURNEY BASIN/EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
CARQUINEZ STRAIT AND DELTA-NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES-
CLEAR LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-MOTHERLODE-
EAST FOOTHILLS/NORTH SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK-WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-
630 AM PDT SAT MAR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY ALONG WITH
GUSTY WIND RESULTING IN WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THREAT OF AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SACRAMENTO
VALLEY.

* WINTER STORM WARNING.......SEE WWUS46 KSTO - WSWSTO FOR DETAILS *

* WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY....SEE WWUS46 KSTO - WSWSTO FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH MAY
IMPACT TRAVEL. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT
(LOWER CASE): HTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/STO