Alert archive / Michigan / Tornado Watches in 2011
Tornado Watch 125
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Apr 10, 2011, 9:17 PM EDT for 10 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 4 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 10, 2011, 9:17 PM EDT (01:17 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 11, 2011, 1:05 AM EDT
- In force
- 4 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 50 kt
Counties Alger County, MI, Baraga County, MI, Chippewa County, MI, Delta County, MI, Dickinson County, MI, Luce County, MI, Mackinac County, MI, Marquette County, MI, Menominee County, MI, Schoolcraft County, MI
The radar
The Marquette radar (KMQT), 87 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 30%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 20%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 20%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 10%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 30%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 5%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 50%
Warnings issued inside it
1 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 9:41 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MQT | Delta, Dickinson, Marquette, Menominee | 34 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 00:00Z, 1.3 hours before the alert went out and 211 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1647 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -38 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1073 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 74 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 399 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 397 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 4.2
- Supercell composite
- 11.4
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
478
WWUS20 KWNS 110119
SEL5
SPC WW 110119
MIZ000-LHZ000-LMZ000-LSZ000-110600-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
920 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
LAKE HURON
LAKE MICHIGAN
LAKE SUPERIOR
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 920 PM UNTIL
200 AM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
ESCANABA MICHIGAN TO 70 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MARQUETTE
MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 120...WW 121...WW
122...WW 123...WW 124...
DISCUSSION...SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS OVER NRN AND ERN WI EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE RAPIDLY ENE ACROSS CNTRL AND PERHAPS ERN PARTS OF THE UPR
PENINSULA OF MI. WHILE NEAR-SFC LAYER IS RELATIVELY STABLE GIVEN
FLOW OFF THE LAKES...KGRB SOUNDING AND VWP DATA SUGGEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE SFC COULD
SUPPORT SUSTENANCE OF EXISTING LOW-LVL MESOCYCLONES AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES THAT MOVE INTO REGION FROM THE WSW.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26050.
...CORFIDISPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 9:55 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alger, Alpena, Antrim, Benzie, Charlevoix, Cheboygan and 26 more | 95 min |
| Apr 11, 12:03 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegan, Barry, Berrien, Calhoun, Cass, Clinton and 12 more | 87 min |
| Apr 11, 1:48 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Branch, Hillsdale, Lenawee, Saint Joseph | 87 min |
Nearby
Tornado Watches in Michigan, 2011Every tornado watch in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.