Severe Thunderstorm Watch 409

Issued

May 31, 2011, 4:05 PM MDT (22:05 UTC)

In effect from

May 31, 2011, 4:10 PM MDT

Expired

May 31, 2011, 10:00 PM MDT

In force

6 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Largest hail expected

2.5 in

Strongest gust expected

60 kt

The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 112 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Two or more tornadoes

20%

One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes

2%

Ten or more severe wind reports

30%

One or more gusts of 65 knots or more

30%

Ten or more severe hail reports

60%

One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more

30%

Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports

80%

• Mesoscale Discussion 1042May 31, 2:31 PM MDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1044May 31, 6:30 PM MDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1045May 31, 8:19 PM MDT

809 
WWUS20 KWNS 312207
SEL9
SPC WW 312207
NMZ000-TXZ000-010400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 409
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
510 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
       PARTS OF TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 510 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF GUADALUPE PASS TEXAS TO 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CHILDRESS TEXAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 407...WW 408...

DISCUSSION...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO INCREASE NWWD
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WITH LITTLE REMAINING CINH. WITH MLCAPE AOA
2500 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF BRN SHEAR...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE E/NE
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.  LARGE HAIL AND LOCAL
DAMAGING WINDS ARE PRIMARY THREAT...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26020.


...HALES

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Texas, 2011Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New Mexico, 2011Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2011

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.