Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 38

March 4, 201129 counties in Arkansas; 9 counties in Illinois; 27 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Mar 4, 2011, 6:50 PM CST for 29 counties in Arkansas; 9 counties in Illinois; 27 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 4, 2011, 6:50 PM CST (00:50 UTC)
Expired
Mar 5, 2011, 1:56 AM CST
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 65 counties

Baxter County, AR, Benton County, AR, Boone County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Conway County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Logan County, AR, Madison County, AR, Marion County, AR, Newton County, AR, Perry County, AR, Pope County, AR, Scott County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, Washington County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Yell County, AR, Bond County, IL, Clinton County, IL, Fayette County, IL, Madison County, IL, Marion County, IL, Monroe County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Saint Clair County, IL, Washington County, IL, Barry County, MO, Christian County, MO, City of Saint Louis, MO, Crawford County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Howell County, MO, Iron County, MO, Jefferson County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Madison County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Saint Francois County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO, Sainte Genevieve County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Washington County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 149 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
5%
Ten or more severe wind reports
20%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
20%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

11 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 4, 7:00 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFLaclede, Phelps, Pulaski, Texas45 min
Mar 4, 7:50 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACarroll, Madison40 min
Mar 4, 7:52 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFDouglas, Ozark, Taney, Texas, Wright53 min
Mar 4, 8:40 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBoone, Newton50 min
Mar 4, 8:42 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningSGFChristian, Douglas, Taney, Webster, Wright6 hr
Mar 4, 9:43 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBaxter, Marion47 min
Mar 4, 10:20 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBaxter, Fulton, Izard, Marion40 min
Mar 4, 10:52 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKFulton, Izard38 min
Mar 4, 11:02 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBaxter, Searcy, Stone43 min
Mar 4, 11:29 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKFulton, Izard, Sharp46 min
Mar 5, 12:56 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningLZKCleburne, Conway, Faulkner, Independence, Izard, Stone and 1 more3 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 0.8 hours before the alert went out and 214 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2011-03-05Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 284 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2011-03-05The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 14 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
284 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-42 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
571 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
14 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
134 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
2.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 4, 6:22 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Boone, Fulton, Marion53 min
Mar 4, 10:48 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Cleburne, Independence, Jackson, Lawrence, Randolph and 2 more87 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Arkansas, 2011Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Missouri, 2011Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Illinois, 2011Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.