Mesoscale Discussion 930

Issued

May 24, 2011, 2:15 PM CDT (19:15 UTC)

Expired

May 24, 2011, 3:45 PM CDT

In force

90 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The San Angelo radar (KSJT), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

117 
ACUS11 KWNS 241916
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241915
TXZ000-242045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0930
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PARTS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY INTO CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241915Z - 242045Z

A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY INTO
CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON. AS CELLS INITIATE...SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. A
TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY OVER THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS THE
REGION.

A DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WEST TX AND IS STARTING TO
ADVANCE MORE QUICKLY EWD. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS
JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FROM NEAR WICHITA FALLS SWD TO NEAR SAN
ANGELO. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS NOW GONE ACROSS THE MCD AREA AND
STORM INITIATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS CONVERGENCE
INCREASES ALONG THE DRYLINE. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG INSTABILITY
IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. IN
ADDITION...PROFILER DATA SUGGEST 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND 40
KT. THE SHEAR SHOULD RAPIDLY INCREASE AS A 65 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST MAKING CONDITIONS VERY FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS. THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS SHOULD HAVE A THREAT
FOR VERY LARGE HAIL OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. IN
ADDITION...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
ALSO RESULT IN A TORNADO THREAT WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO
THREAT POSSIBLE AS WELL.

..BROYLES.. 05/24/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   33489878 33289954 32670021 32070059 31440101 30860136
            30390120 30070082 30059997 30329859 31449784 32769769
            33489878

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.