Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 93

February 7, 201115 counties in Florida

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 7, 2011, 1:44 PM EST for 15 counties in Florida. It was in force for 91 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 7, 2011, 1:44 PM EST (18:44 UTC)
Expired: Feb 7, 2011, 3:15 PM EST
In force: 91 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Brevard County, FL, Citrus County, FL, Hardee County, FL, Hernando County, FL, Hillsborough County, FL, Lake County, FL, Manatee County, FL, Orange County, FL, Osceola County, FL, Pasco County, FL, Pinellas County, FL, Polk County, FL, Seminole County, FL, Sumter County, FL, Volusia County, FL

The radar

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 91 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 12:00Z, 6.7 hours before the alert went out and 91 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 941 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 67 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 310 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 297 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

404 
ACUS11 KWNS 071844
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071844 
FLZ000-072015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0093
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 PM CST MON FEB 07 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 071844Z - 072015Z

AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CNTRL FL. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL AND WW ISSUANCE
WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED.

A CONVECTIVE LINE EXTENDING FROM THE FL COAST TO ABOUT 120 STATUTE
MILES TO THE WEST OF TAMPA BAY IS LOCATED VERY NEAR A SLOW-MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SFC TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY VEERED SFC WINDS...50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS THROUGH THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS SHOULD MAKE
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT AS CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE
INTENSIFY AND MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 02/07/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   27628066 27208199 27288262 27748282 28318280 28678276
            28918258 29078205 29178151 29068104 28788068 28348055
            27628066

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2011 Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.