Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 926

May 24, 20117 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 24, 2011, 1:34 PM EDT for 7 states. It was in force for 116 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 24, 2011, 1:34 PM EDT (17:34 UTC)
Expired: May 24, 2011, 3:30 PM EDT
In force: 116 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 80 counties

Berkshire County, MA, Essex County, MA, Franklin County, MA, Hampden County, MA, Hampshire County, MA, Middlesex County, MA, Norfolk County, MA, Suffolk County, MA, Worcester County, MA, Belknap County, NH, Cheshire County, NH, Hillsborough County, NH, Merrimack County, NH, Rockingham County, NH, Strafford County, NH, Sullivan County, NH, Bergen County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Albany County, NY, Bronx County, NY, Broome County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Kings County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Nassau County, NY, New York County, NY, Orange County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Queens County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Westchester County, NY, Berks County, PA, Bradford County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Lackawanna County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Pike County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Wayne County, PA, Wyoming County, PA, Kent County, RI, Providence County, RI, Bennington County, VT, Rutland County, VT, Windham County, VT, Windsor County, VT

The radar

The Albany radar (KENX), 96 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 5.6 hours before the alert went out and 102 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 759 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 102 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 149 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

599 
ACUS11 KWNS 241735
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241734
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-241930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0926
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHEAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241734Z - 241930Z

AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL MARGINAL/SPORADIC NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW...WITH A 20 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF
ISSUANCE BY 20Z.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY COMMENCED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN VT THROUGH ERN/CNTRL NY INTO NRN PA WITHIN A BROADLY
CYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO
BECOME ROBUST GIVEN POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6 DEG C/KM
AT 700-500 MB SAMPLED IN REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS. DESPITE AREAS OF
SCATTERED TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVERAGE...POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING
WILL RESULT IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. GIVEN MODERATE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KT...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN
MARGINAL AND PERHAPS YIELD ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS IN STRONGER CORES.

..GRAMS.. 05/24/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON   40247430 40377586 41067697 41727672 42557602 43557418
            43817228 43647120 43147080 42407089 41547153 41267212
            40687347 40557409 40247430

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 23, 8:07 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Livingston, Wyoming	83 min
May 23, 8:31 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Allegheny, Beaver, Butler, Clarion, Crawford, Erie and 6 more	3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2011 Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2011 Mesoscale Discussions in New Jersey, 2011 Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.