Mesoscale Discussion 78

Issued

Feb 1, 2011, 7:50 PM CST (01:50 UTC)

Expired

Feb 1, 2011, 9:45 PM CST

In force

115 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Eglin Afb radar (KEVX), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

477 
ACUS11 KWNS 020150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020150 
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-020345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0078
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN AL...SWRN GA...FL
PANHANDLE.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 10...11...

VALID 020150Z - 020345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 10...11...CONTINUES.

PRIMARY BAND OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS DISCUSSION
AREA INCLUDING WW 11.  POTENTIAL FOR STG-SVR GUSTS APPEARS GREATEST
OVER WW AREA...AND DIMINISHES NWD...BUT IS NONZERO ALONG AND S OF
WARM FRONT OUTLINED BELOW.  MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND SHOULD CLEAR
REMAINDER WW 10 BY SCHEDULED 02Z EXPIRATION...AND THAT WW MAY BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

01Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT JUST SW OF BOTH AUO AND
LSF...SEWD TO BETWEEN JAX-VLD...AND MOVING NWD 10-15 KT.  MODIFIED
RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SHALLOW STABLE LAYER REINFORCED BY
COMBINATION OF COOLING FROM RAIN AND DIABATIC SFC HEAT
LOSS...SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY LOW-LEVEL WAA.  ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE LIFTED
PARCELS ARE ANALYZED ABOVE SFC...DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH
STG-DAMAGING GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN MOST INTENSE CORES ASSOCIATED
WITH PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND -- ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT.  MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ALSO PERSISTS ALONG PRECURSORY
CONFLUENCE LINE ANALYZED FROM NEAR MAI AND PFN SSWWD ACROSS GULF. 
LARGE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR -- I.E. EFFECTIVE SRH 200-400
J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE 50-60 KT -- WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR ORGANIZATION
TO ANY ACTIVITY INVOF CONFLUENCE LINE.  MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL
REMAIN LACK OF MORE ROBUST BUOYANCY...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING
MLCAPE ONLY 200-400 J/KG IN NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE AND
S OF FL/AL BORDER.  STILL...ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FARTHER N INTO PORTIONS GA/AL BORDER REGION S LGC...AND TORNADO
POTENTIAL REMAINS NONZERO WITH QLCS OR PRECEDING CONVECTION. 
OVERALL SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT E OF WW ACROSS
SRN GA AND ERN FL PANHANDLE AS CONVECTION GRADUALLY MOVES INTO
WEAKER BOUNDARY-LAYER THETAE AND STRONGER CINH.

..EDWARDS.. 02/02/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   30398685 31218591 31728574 32368561 32968501 32008398
            31298355 30108403 29588497 29678519 29658538 29888544
            29918536 30198588 30368637 30398685

Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.