Mesoscale Discussion 76

Issued

Feb 1, 2011, 7:28 PM EST (00:28 UTC)

Expired

Feb 2, 2011, 12:30 AM EST

In force

5 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 78 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

269 
ACUS11 KWNS 020028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020028 
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-020530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0076
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0628 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL LOWER MI

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD 

VALID 020028Z - 020530Z

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND STRONG/GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF SRN AND CNTRL LOWER MI. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL RATES OF
ONE INCH PER HOUR WILL BE COMMON BUT COME PORTIONS OF CNTRL MI COULD
SEE RATES AS HIGH AS 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR.

00Z SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A MATURE AND
IMPRESSIVE EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH
HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF MO/IA AND IL. AN
850 MB LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR ST. LOUIS AT 00Z AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED A DRY SLOT SURGING NEWD THROUGH CNTRL IL AS A MID LEVEL WARM
CONVEYOR BELT CONTINUED TO ADVECT MOISTURE AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NEWD...STRONG 850 MB
FRONTOGENETIC BAND OVER CNTRL IL/IND WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER ASCENT
ACROSS LOWER MI. AT THE SAME TIME...INCREASING MID LEVEL JET /AROUND
40 KT/ AND APPROACHING VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL AID IN FORCING FOR
ASCENT THROUGH DEEP...SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LIMITED CAPE IN THE DENDRITC ZONE...BUT MOST
IS ABOVE THE SATURATED LAYER. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EVEN A
MODEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS/BANDED PRECIPITATION THAT WOULD INCREASE
RATES.

EXPECT HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO PICK UP BY 03Z WITH 2-3
INCH PER RATES BY 06Z ACROSS CNTRL LOWER MI AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..STOPPKOTTE.. 02/02/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   43038239 43948251 44378291 44548361 44578442 44468573
            44298642 44188655 43748686 43128697 42368700 41838683
            41808613 41708416 42068304 42468255 43038239

Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.