Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011
Mesoscale Discussion 734
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 11, 2011, 2:16 PM EDT for 20 counties in Michigan; 16 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 119 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 11, 2011, 2:16 PM EDT (18:16 UTC)
- Expired
- May 11, 2011, 4:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 119 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 36 counties
Arenac County, MI, Bay County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Clare County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Isabella County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Lake County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Mason County, MI, Mecosta County, MI, Midland County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Osceola County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Tuscola County, MI, Wexford County, MI, Brown County, WI, Door County, WI, Forest County, WI, Kewaunee County, WI, Langlade County, WI, Lincoln County, WI, Manitowoc County, WI, Marathon County, WI, Marinette County, WI, Menominee County, WI, Oconto County, WI, Oneida County, WI, Outagamie County, WI, Price County, WI, Shawano County, WI, Taylor County, WI
The radar
The Green Bay radar (KGRB), 122 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 6.3 hours before the alert went out and 122 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 782 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 44 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 102 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 105 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
041
ACUS11 KWNS 111817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111816
MIZ000-WIZ000-112015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0734
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL LOWER MI...A SMALL PART OF SRN UPPER
MI...NRN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 111816Z - 112015Z
ISOLATED SVR STORMS POSING A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL LOWER
MI...A SMALL PART OF SRN UPPER MI...AND NRN WI.
DEEP...ELEVATED CONVECTIVE CORES ARE DEVELOPING/PERSISTING AT THE
NRN APEX OF A PLUME OF STEEP 700-500-MB LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5
C PER KM EXTENDING NWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
PROVIDE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPE VALUES AOA 1000 J PER KG/ FOR
THE CONVECTION TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE THE SURFACE -- I.E. BETWEEN 900 AND 850 MB
PER RAPID REFRESH FORECAST SOUNDINGS -- WITH THE SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE
DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONVECTION /ACROSS SRN MI AND SRN
WI/. GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES GENERALLY AOB 30 KT...THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR...WITH LIMITED THREAT
FOR INDIVIDUALLY SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE CORES. THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT
WILL BE MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...ON AN ISOLATED BASIS.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH AN INFLUX OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FEATURING PWAT
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.4 INCHES PER AMSU/SSMI TPW PRODUCT...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY
CONVECTIVE TRAINING /AS NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN LOWER MI/.
..COHEN.. 05/11/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 43778633 44158787 44538903 45309100 45849040 45828900
45468725 45058589 44638417 44428343 43948306 43488336
43468486 43778633SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 4:19 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Delta, Dickinson, Iron, Marquette, Menominee | 56 min |
| May 11, 6:40 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegan, Berrien, Cass, Saint Joseph, Van Buren | 65 min |
| May 11, 6:56 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allegan, Barry, Berrien, Branch, Calhoun, Cass and 3 more | 5 hr |
| May 10, 9:45 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Buffalo, Crawford, Dunn, Eau Claire, Iowa, Jackson and 10 more | 90 min |
| May 11, 1:55 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Columbia, Dane, Dodge, Green, Green Lake and 12 more | 65 min |
| May 11, 2:23 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adams, Calumet, Clark, Columbia, Crawford, Dane and 26 more | 6 hr |
| May 11, 4:38 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Brown, Calumet, Clark, Columbia, Crawford and 34 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.