Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 7

January 5, 2011Bay County, Gulf County, Walton County, Florida

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 5, 2011, 9:42 AM CST for Bay County, Gulf County, Walton County, Florida. It was in force for 63 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 5, 2011, 9:42 AM CST (15:42 UTC)
Expired
Jan 5, 2011, 10:45 AM CST
In force
63 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Bay County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Walton County, FL

The radar

The Eglin Afb radar (KEVX), 48 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 12:00Z, 3.7 hours before the alert went out and 150 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 12:00Z on 2011-01-05Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 12:00Z on 2011-01-05The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 91 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1883 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
91 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
174 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

789 
ACUS11 KWNS 051542
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051542 
FLZ000-051645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0007
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0942 AM CST WED JAN 05 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 051542Z - 051645Z

A STRONG/NEAR-SEVERE WIND GUST OR EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ALONG THE FL PANHANDLE COAST THROUGH MIDDAY. BUT
OVERALL...ANY SUCH THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/MARGINAL AND NO
WATCH IS EXPECTED.

AN ELEVATED BOW ECHO CONTINUES TO STEADILY ADVANCE EASTWARD AT
AROUND 45 KT ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE...NEAR CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY AS OF
1530Z. WHILE THE BOW ECHO WILL LIKELY TEND TO REMAIN AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AS THE MARINE BOUNDARY REMAINS PRINCIPALLY
OFFSHORE...THE EXISTING ORGANIZATION/FORWARD SPEED OF THE BOW ECHO
COULD YIELD STRONG/PERHAPS NEAR-SEVERE WINDS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS WOULD BE AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE/BOW-PRECEDING AIRMASS CONTINUES
TO GRADUALLY WARM/MOISTEN IN THE PANAMA CITY/APALACHICOLA VICINITIES
AND OTHER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE.

..GUYER.. 01/05/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   30208672 30628635 30468541 29858441 29598515 30098605
            30208672

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.