Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 686

May 1, 201126 counties in Arkansas; Ripley County, Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 1, 2011, 7:31 PM CDT for 26 counties in Arkansas; Ripley County, Missouri. It was in force for 59 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 1, 2011, 7:31 PM CDT (00:31 UTC)
Expired
May 1, 2011, 8:30 PM CDT
In force
59 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 27 counties

Clay County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Conway County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Garland County, AR, Greene County, AR, Howard County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Perry County, AR, Pike County, AR, Polk County, AR, Pope County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Saline County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Yell County, AR, Ripley County, MO

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 67 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 00:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 200 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 00:00Z on 2011-05-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 5 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 00:00Z on 2011-05-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 614 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
5 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
396 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
69 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
614 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
776 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
10.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

857 
ACUS11 KWNS 020031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020031 
ARZ000-MOZ000-020130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0686
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL TO NERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 020031Z - 020130Z

ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ONLY MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. A WW ISSUANCE DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY.

00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1007 MB MESOLOW NEAR GGG WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS SRN AR TOWARDS MEM. AS
ALLUDED TO IN MCD 684/685...ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE BLOSSOMED N OF THIS
BOUNDARY FROM W-CNTRL THROUGH N-CNTRL AR WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVE COOLED INTO THE MIDDLE 40S AND 50S. 00Z LZK RAOB SAMPLES THE
ELEVATED INFLOW ENVIRONMENT WELL WITH MUCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND
STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 60 KT. SEVERAL REPORTS OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL HAVE OCCURRED AND THIS OUGHT TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE ACTIVITY WHERE BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN
LARGEST. WITH ZERO SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...ANY TORNADO THREAT IN
N-CNTRL AR WILL REMAIN NIL.

..GRAMS.. 05/02/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...

LAT...LON   34829196 33979378 34069415 34499433 35369334 36499152
            36699095 36629064 36389039 35759062 35459075 34829196

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 1, 8:10 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia and 24 more35 min
May 2, 1:28 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHoward, Little River, Miller, Sevier3 hr
May 2, 1:51 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley, Chicot, Desha, Drew2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.