Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 56

January 31, 201115 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 31, 2011, 3:18 PM CST for 15 counties in Texas. It was in force for 27 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 31, 2011, 3:18 PM CST (21:18 UTC)
Expired: Jan 31, 2011, 3:45 PM CST
In force: 27 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Brown County, TX, Callahan County, TX, Coke County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Fisher County, TX, Haskell County, TX, Jones County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Nolan County, TX, Runnels County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Shackelford County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Taylor County, TX

The radar

The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 57 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 9.3 hours before the alert went out and 228 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 3568 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 67 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 58 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 105 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

636 
ACUS11 KWNS 312118
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312118 
TXZ000-312145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0056
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 312118Z - 312145Z

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST WITH A FEW STORMS PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND
GUSTS.

EARLY-MID AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS SHOWED CU/TCU
FORMING ALONG A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES LOCATED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX.
INITIAL CU FORMED ALONG A N/NWWD RETREATING CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE TO
THE ENE OF SJT...WITH ADDITIONAL CU ALONG AN APPARENT DRY LINE
EXTENDING NWD FROM SJT TO A SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  THE APEX OF
THIS COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LINE...
AND THEN EXTENDED WNWWD INTO ERN NM.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S ALONG THE NRN EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE RETURN COMBINED WITH STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES IS SUPPORTING AT LEAST MARGINAL
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 500 J PER KG/.  THIS COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR 35-45 KT IS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS.  INITIAL
ACTIVITY FORMING ALONG RETREATING MOISTURE SURGE MAY BECOME SURFACE
BASED FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY BECOMING UNDERCUT
BY SWD MOVING COLD FRONT.  THUS...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT WITH ELEVATED STORMS.

..PETERS.. 01/31/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   32879895 32119869 31469908 31620023 31920074 32660138
            33070082 33329976 32879895

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2011 Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.