Alert archive / Wisconsin / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 52

January 28, 20114 counties in Minnesota; 6 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 28, 2011, 1:19 PM CST for 4 counties in Minnesota; 6 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 28, 2011, 1:19 PM CST (19:19 UTC)
Expired: Jan 28, 2011, 4:15 PM CST
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Carlton County, MN, Koochiching County, MN, Lake County, MN, Saint Louis County, MN, Ashland County, WI, Bayfield County, WI, Burnett County, WI, Douglas County, WI, Sawyer County, WI, Washburn County, WI

The radar

The Duluth radar (KDLH), 38 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 174 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 647 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 56 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 105 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 279 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

065 
ACUS11 KWNS 281919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281919 
WIZ000-MNZ000-282215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0052
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CST FRI JAN 28 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MN...MN ARROWHEAD INTO NORTHWEST WI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 281919Z - 282215Z

HEAVY SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MUCH AS SUGGESTED BY RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS...EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF
PRECIPITATION FALLING FROM HIGH-LEVEL CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF A
SIGNIFICANT DIGGING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IS LIKELY SATURATING THE
MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SURFACE SNOW RATES
APPEARS PROBABLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER IMPULSE...AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES ALONG A
STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
BAROCLINIC ZONE.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIFT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED WITHIN THE LAYER FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH BY 21-23Z... GENERALLY ALONG A CORRIDOR
CENTERED NEAR/WEST OF INTERNATIONAL FALLS INTO AREAS NEAR/EAST OF
DULUTH.  CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR 1 INCH PER HOUR SNOW
RATES...WHICH COULD EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN BY 00-02Z...BEFORE FORCING WANES AND SPREADS OFF TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING.

..KERR.. 01/28/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...

LAT...LON   48649315 48089176 47419118 46499042 45629095 45659213
            46149274 46799310 48309381 48649315

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2011 Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2011 Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.