Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011
Mesoscale Discussion 37
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 19, 2011, 7:25 PM CST for 32 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 4 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 19, 2011, 7:25 PM CST (01:25 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 19, 2011, 11:00 PM CST
- In force
- 4 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 32 counties
Audrain County, MO, Benton County, MO, Boone County, MO, Callaway County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Cass County, MO, Chariton County, MO, City of Saint Louis, MO, Cole County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Howard County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Jefferson County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Maries County, MO, Miller County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Montgomery County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Osage County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Pike County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO, Saline County, MO, Warren County, MO
The radar
The St Louis radar (KLSX), 153 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 1.4 hours before the alert went out and 234 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 879 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 70 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 277 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 683 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
833
ACUS11 KWNS 200125
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200125
ILZ000-MOZ000-200500-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0037
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 PM CST WED JAN 19 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MO
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 200125Z - 200500Z
BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH REPORTED SNOWFALL RATES TO
AROUND 1 IN/HR WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN
CNTRL MO. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE WITH
TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
LATEST RADAR/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRMS A SWATH OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW CENTERED ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR NEAR TO JUST E OF THE
KANSAS CITY METRO AREA...WITH REPORTED RATES OF 1 IN/HR /REF KMCI/.
HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES APPEAR TO BE AT OR NEAR PEAK GIVEN THE
CESSATION OF IR CLOUD TOP COOLING...ALONG WITH HIGH CONSISTENCY
AMONGST AFTERNOON MODEL GUIDANCE OF DIMINISHING QPF WITH TIME THIS
EVENING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH FORECAST WEAKENING OF 850-700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS AND LOW/MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. 21Z SREF
PROBABILITY MATCHED 3-HR SNOWFALL TOTALS SUGGEST THAT RATES AOA 1
IN/HR WOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LOCALIZED...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.
NEVERTHELESS...AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE SAINT LOUIS METRO AREA...CONSISTENT WITH
THE AXIS OF ONGOING WINTER STORM WARNINGS.
..GRAMS.. 01/20/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 38939449 39379417 39629279 39369119 39039036 38559011
38279034 38019099 38029177 38099260 38499411 38619445
38939449Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.