Mesoscale Discussion 294

Issued

Mar 27, 2011, 1:41 PM CDT (18:41 UTC)

Expired

Mar 27, 2011, 2:45 PM CDT

In force

64 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Shreveport radar (KSHV), 84 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

608 
ACUS11 KWNS 271841
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271841 
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-271945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0294
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR...NWRN LA...FAR W-CNTRL MS...EXTREME SERN
OK...NERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 271841Z - 271945Z

A THREAT FOR ISOLATED AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL EXIST WITH AN
ONGOING BAND OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN AR. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF N AND NERN
TX...WHERE RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS INDICATED COOLING CLOUD
TOPS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. 

LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY EXITING THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
/PER RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD
TOWARDS THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY. BROAD LLJ /SAMPLED AT AROUND 30 KTS
ABOVE 1K FT/ AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO FOCUS AN AREA OF
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO SRN AR...ATOP
A POST-FRONTAL COLD STABLE LAYER. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 DEG
C/KM ARE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD MUCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 500-1000 J/KG
/PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS/. RECENT GPS-IPW DATA INDICATE
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS ACROSS N
TX. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN
AR...AND POTENTIALLY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER W ACROSS N/NERN
TX. GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THUNDERSTORMS...HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CORES...WITH SOME POSSIBLY
APPROACHING/EXCEEDING SEVERE CRITERIA.

..ROGERS.. 03/27/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   31799640 32119693 32469707 33399675 33779635 33999469
            34139272 34049193 33689114 33429068 33139133 32339404
            31799640

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.