Mesoscale Discussion 270

Issued

Mar 24, 2011, 7:09 PM CDT (00:09 UTC)

Expired

Mar 24, 2011, 8:45 PM CDT

In force

96 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

313 
ACUS11 KWNS 250009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250009 
TXZ000-250145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0270
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0709 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 250009Z - 250145Z

ONE SUPERCELL IS UNDERWAY IN SCURRY CO TEXAS...WITH ADDITIONAL
INITIATION POSSIBLE ALONG AND E OF THE DRYLINE IN THE NEXT 2-3 HRS.
A WW IS POSSIBLE IF ADDITIONAL CELLS BECOME ORGANIZED.

23Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A DRYLINE ACROSS FAR W TX...WITH CU NOTED
RUNNING FROM AROUND LBB S TO NEAR AND JUST SW OF MAF. MEANWHILE...A
NW-TO-SE ORIENTED WARM FRONT RUNS FROM S OF LBB TO THE NE OF MAF.
WHILE MANY CELLS HAVE STRUGGLED TO SURVIVE AS THEY MOVE OFF THE
DRYLINE...ONE CELL HAS INTENSIFIED AND HAS ALREADY PRODUCED SEVERE
HAIL NE OF MAF. HOWEVER...THIS CELL HAS MOVED N OF THE WARM FRONT
AND SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS WEAKER BUOYANCY AND
STRONGER SFC-BASED INHIBITION.

ADDITIONAL CELLS MAY FORM FURTHER W ON THE DRYLINE IN THE NEXT 1-2
HRS BEFORE DIABATIC COOLING STABILIZES THE BOUNDARY LAYER. VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES.../AS NOTED ON THE 00Z MAF SOUNDING/...MU CAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WILL SUPPORT A LARGE
HAIL THREAT WITH ANY CELL THAT BECOMES ESTABLISHED. LARGE T/TD
SPREADS AND DCAPE OF AROUND 1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND. 

IF ADDITIONAL STORMS FORM FURTHER WEST ALONG THE DRYLINE AND HAVE
THE OPPORTUNITY TO STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR OR
TWO...A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED.

..DEAN.. 03/25/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   31760245 32310220 32850191 33520180 33900203 34100216
            34340181 34520135 34600103 34540064 34260007 33469969
            32889977 32170013 31830060 31620147 31670196 31760245

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.