Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 27

January 17, 2011Miami-Dade County, Florida

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 17, 2011, 6:27 PM EST for Miami-Dade County, Florida. It was in force for 63 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 17, 2011, 6:27 PM EST (23:27 UTC)
Expired
Jan 17, 2011, 7:30 PM EST
In force
63 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

County Miami-Dade County, FL

The radar

The Miami radar (KAMX), 41 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Miami, FL (KMFL), launched 12:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 67 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Miami, FL at 12:00Z on 2011-01-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 44 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Miami, FL at 12:00Z on 2011-01-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 148 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
44 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-136 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
894 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
148 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
213 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

150 
ACUS11 KWNS 172327
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172327 
FLZ000-180030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0027
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0527 PM CST MON JAN 17 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME SERN FL AND UPPER KEYS.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 5...

VALID 172327Z - 180030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 5 CONTINUES.

LINE OF MAINLY SUB-SVR TSTMS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR GUST
OR QLCS TORNADO...IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS REMAINDER
UPPER KEYS AND SRN/ERN PORTIONS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY THROUGH AROUND
0015Z.  WW 5 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED LOCALLY IN TIME UNTIL ACTIVITY HAS CLEARED ELLIOTT KEY AND
ADJACENT WATERS.  WW ALSO MAY BE REMOVED BEHIND PRIMARY BAND OF
CONVECTION IN MEANTIME.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAS
SETTLED QUASISTATIONARY FROM ABOUT 30 SE OF NORTH BIMINI TO ABOUT 10
SE OF ISLAMORADA...INTERSECTING CONVECTIVE BAND JUST E MTH. AIR MASS
GRADUALLY STABILIZES N OF THIS BOUNDARY...HOWEVER MODIFIED
RUC/ETA-KF SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS
ARE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF FL BAY AND SRN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AROUND
HST.  PRE-STORM MLCAPE ESTIMATES DECREASE FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER
UPPER KEYS TO LESS THEN 250 J/KG BETWEEN HST-MIA.  BACKED FLOW N OF
BOUNDARY ENHANCED BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...WITH AROUND
40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE ESTIMATED OVER REGION.  VEERED FLOW
JUST ABOVE SFC HAS RESULTED IN MORE ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FROM UPPER BOUNDARY LAYER UPWARD...FAVORING
CONTINUED DOMINANCE OF QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES.

..EDWARDS.. 01/17/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

LAT...LON   24788084 25358070 25828073 25848011 25458017 25128037
            24958056 24788084

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 17, 10:17 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrevard, Broward, Charlotte, Collier, DeSoto, Glades and 15 more118 min
Jan 17, 11:33 AM ESTTornado WatchSPCBroward, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Palm Beach7 hr
Jan 17, 11:54 AM ESTTornado WatchSPCBrevard, Charlotte, DeSoto, Hardee, Highlands, Indian River and 9 more5 hr
Jan 17, 3:23 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBroward, Miami-Dade, Monroe97 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.