Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 233

March 19, 20114 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 19, 2011, 5:30 AM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 19, 2011, 5:30 AM CDT (10:30 UTC)
Expired: Mar 19, 2011, 8:00 AM CDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 26 counties

Benton County, AR, Chautauqua County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Elk County, KS, Labette County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Dade County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Newton County, MO, Stone County, MO, Adair County, OK, Craig County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Kay County, OK, Mayes County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Osage County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Washington County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 94 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 89 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1093 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 59 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 19 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 94 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

388 
ACUS11 KWNS 191031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191030
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-191300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0233
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0530 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK/SERN KS/SWRN MO/NWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 191030Z - 191300Z

ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE -- AND POSSIBLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
-- OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL
FOR SMALL TO MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL.  WW NOT EXPECTED AS THREAT FOR
SEVERE-SIZED HAIL APPEARS LIMITED/LOCAL.

LATEST RADAR SHOWS STORMS CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS NERN OK AND NWD TO THE VICINITY OF THE KS
BORDER...AS 35 TO 40KT SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
ERN HALF OF OK.  EVENING /05Z/ LMN /LAMONT OK/ RAOB REVEALS STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG CAPE ABOVE AN INVERSION NEAR
H8...AND THIS DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH
MODEL FORECASTS OF A SWATH OF 1000 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA.

ALONG WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...INCREASING FLOW WITH HEIGHT
THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER IS YIELDING SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/WEAK ROTATION...AS EVIDENT IN A FEW STRONGER
CELLS ATTM.  GIVEN THIS...THREAT FOR HAIL IS LIKELY -- AND MAY
PERHAPS REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS.

..GOSS.. 03/19/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36579337 36459364 35869466 36279649 36809735 37409689
            37689381 37009346 36579337

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 19, 3:05 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Benton	85 min
Mar 19, 7:30 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barber, Clark, Comanche, Harper, Meade	60 min
Mar 19, 9:43 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Allen, Anderson, Bourbon, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 26 more	6 hr
Mar 19, 11:32 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allen, Anderson, Barber, Bourbon, Butler, Chase and 36 more	118 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2011 Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2011 Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2011 Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.