Alert archive / California / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 231

March 18, 2011San Mateo County, Santa Cruz County, California

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 18, 2011, 11:37 AM PDT for San Mateo County, Santa Cruz County, California. It was in force for 53 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 18, 2011, 11:37 AM PDT (18:37 UTC)
Expired
Mar 18, 2011, 12:30 PM PDT
In force
53 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties San Mateo County, CA, Santa Cruz County, CA

The radar

The San Francisco radar (KMUX), 36 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Oakland, CA (KOAK), launched 12:00Z, 6.6 hours before the alert went out and 102 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Oakland, CA at 12:00Z on 2011-03-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 21 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Oakland, CA at 12:00Z on 2011-03-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 203 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
21 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-28 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
757 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
68 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
203 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
285 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

355 
ACUS11 KWNS 181837
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181837 
CAZ000-181930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0231
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SECTIONS OF W-CNTRL CA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 181837Z - 181930Z

SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WILL POSE A LOW THREAT FOR ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF W-CNTRL CA.

STRONG LOW-LEVEL FORCING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SEWD ALONG THE WRN COAST OF CA WILL SUPPORT LOW-TOPPED SCATTERED
CONVECTION INTO THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED PRE-FRONTAL INSOLATION WILL
KEEP ANY SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY VERY MARGINAL...PRECLUDING A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...STRONG SWLY FLOW JUST
ABOVE THE SFC /30-40 KT AT 925 MB PER RUC ANALYSIS/ WILL YIELD AN
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE
CORES. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD PROMOTE WEAK
ROTATION /POSSIBLY A WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL/ WITH SOME OF THE
CONVECTION OFFSHORE...WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER UPWARD BUOYANCY
EXISTS...AND LEWP STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN NOTED IN RECENT RADAR
IMAGERY. HOWEVER...AS THIS CONVECTION MOVES ONSHORE...IT WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE LIMITED INSTABILITY.

..COHEN.. 03/18/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MTR...

LAT...LON   36082180 36532201 36772206 36972220 37082232 37322242
            37472238 37692216 37432193 36922160 36482141 36032145
            36082180

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 18, 9:26 AM PDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlpine, El Dorado, Nevada, Placer, Plumas, Sierra and 1 more4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in California, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.