Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 2292

November 7, 20119 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 7, 2011, 5:04 PM CST for 9 counties in Texas. It was in force for 56 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Nov 7, 2011, 5:04 PM CST (23:04 UTC)
Expired: Nov 7, 2011, 6:00 PM CST
In force: 56 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Armstrong County, TX, Carson County, TX, Castro County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 11.1 hours before the alert went out and 6 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1730 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 63 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 242 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 351 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

782 
ACUS11 KWNS 072304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072304 
TXZ000-080000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2292
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0504 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 072304Z - 080000Z

TSTM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/ERN TX PANHANDLE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL WITH THESE STORMS. 

RADAR TRENDS SHOW ONGOING TSTMS NEAR SFC COLD FRONT SEGMENT ARCING
WNWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...LIKELY AIDED BY INCREASING FORCED
ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE REGION AHEAD OF A SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH.
NELY STORM MOTION WILL CAUSE TSTMS TO MOVE INTO LOWER THETA-E
ENVIRONMENT AND BECOME ELEVATED. HOWEVER...WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE...COMBINED WITH 40-50 KTS OF 3-6 KM AGL LAYER FLOW
/PER TCU AND JTN PROFILER DATA/...SOME ROTATING TSTMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE OF
THE SVR THREAT WILL PRECLUDE IMMEDIATE ISSUANCE OF A WW ...BUT
TRENDS IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..ROGERS.. 11/07/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   35530048 34980100 34690155 34500196 34540242 34770273
            35110293 35380260 35690197 35990102 35910053 35530048

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 6, 7:00 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cooke, Jack, Montague, Palo Pinto, Stephens, Wise and 1 more	90 min
Nov 7, 7:52 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Armstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle and 14 more	83 min
Nov 7, 12:27 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baylor, Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle, Dickens, Floyd and 11 more	93 min
Nov 7, 1:11 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Archer, Baylor, Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle, Dickens and 11 more	8 hr
Nov 7, 2:41 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Eastland, Fisher, Haskell and 9 more	94 min
Nov 7, 5:51 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Archer, Baylor, Cottle, Foard, Hardeman, King and 3 more	114 min
Nov 7, 5:53 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cooke, Dallas, Denton, Grayson, Hood, Johnson and 4 more	67 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2011 Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.