Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011

Mesoscale Discussion 2248

October 11, 20115 counties in Oklahoma; 14 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 11, 2011, 7:32 PM CDT for 5 counties in Oklahoma; 14 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 11, 2011, 7:32 PM CDT (00:32 UTC)
Expired: Oct 11, 2011, 10:00 PM CDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Beckham County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Childress County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Donley County, TX, Foard County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, King County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Motley County, TX, Wheeler County, TX

The radar

The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 118 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 154 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 3705 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 56 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 81 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 119 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

180 
ACUS11 KWNS 120032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120032 
OKZ000-TXZ000-120300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2248
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN PANHANDLE OF TX...CAPROCK/LOW-ROLLING
PLAINS OF NW TX...WRN OK.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 120032Z - 120300Z

BKN BAND OF STG-SVR TSTMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH
CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR SVR...WILL PROCEED EWD TO SEWD ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA.  PRIND ACTIVITY IS PAST PEAK SVR POTENTIAL...WHICH
SHOULD DIMINISH FURTHER AFTER ABOUT 01Z.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. 
MEANWHILE LARGE HAIL IS MAIN CONCERN.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER N-CENTRAL TX/CENTRAL OK PANHANDLE
REGION...WITH WAVY DRYLINE EXTENDING GENERALLY SWD ACROSS ERN
FRINGES AMA AREA...CROSSING I-27 BETWEEN CANYON-PVW THEN GENERALLY
SSWWD TO BETWEEN MAF-INK.  COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM LOW NEWD
ACROSS N-CENTRAL KS.  MODEL SOUNDING AND JTN PROFILER SHOW FAVORABLE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH EFFECTIVE SRH 150-300 J/KG AND CORRIDOR OF
40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE NEAR PRESENT LOCATION OF
CONVECTIVE BAND.  30-35 KT LLJ E OF DRYLINE SHOULD MAINTAIN
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES...WHILE DEEP-LAYER DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IS MAINTAINED BY VEERING OF MID-UPPER FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF
TROUGH ALOFT. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE WITH EWD EXTENT AND WITH TIME FOR ORGANIZED SVR.  MODIFIED
RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS REASONABLY SUGGEST THAT SFC DIABATIC
COOLING WILL RESULT IN DECREASINGLY SFC-BASED PARCELS IN MOIST
SECTOR.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ALONG
RETREATING DRYLINE.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL BECOME LESS PROBABLE WITH
TIME THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING BASED ON THOSE THERMAL TRENDS THAT
YIELD STRENGTHENING MLCINH TO ITS E.

..EDWARDS.. 10/12/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33650109 35520086 36410021 36309929 34959930 33729986
            33349991 33170059 33650109

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 12, 3:46 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Craig, Delaware, Ottawa	59 min
Oct 11, 11:57 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Archer, Baylor, Clay, Denton, Hood, Jack and 8 more	2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2011 Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2011 Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.