Mesoscale Discussion 2247

Issued

Oct 11, 2011, 3:48 PM CDT (20:48 UTC)

Expired

Oct 11, 2011, 4:45 PM CDT

In force

57 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 65 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

969 
ACUS11 KWNS 112048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112048 
TXZ000-OKZ000-112145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2247
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES...PORTIONS OF TX S PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 112048Z - 112145Z

ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES AND THE TX S PLAINS. PRIMARY
THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...BUT
ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS ELONGATED TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS...WITH PRIMARY ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
STRETCHING FROM W-CNTRL TX INTO WRN OK. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A STRONG
UPPER JET CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES IS NOW
BEGINNING TO NOSE INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS /AS SAMPLED BY TCU
PROFILER/. AT THE SFC...20Z SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PLACES A DEEPENING
SFC LOW APPROXIMATELY 30 E GUY...WITH A DIFFUSE DRYLINE/TROUGH
PROTRUDING SSWD TO NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE ALONG WEAKLY
CONFLUENT SFC TROUGH/LOW...AND WITH LITTLE TO NO CINH IN PLACE...AT
LEAST ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY 22Z /AS SUPPORTED
BY SEVERAL RUNS OF THE EXPERIMENTAL WRF-HRRR/. 

MORE ROBUST TSTM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE PRECLUDED BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND UNFAVORABLE PHASING OF UPPER TROUGH /MOVING E OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA/...ALTHOUGH WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET
MAY ENCOURAGE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...INSTABILITY IS QUITE MARGINAL OWING TO MODEST
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /MLCAPE VALUES 500-1000 J/KG/...BUT
STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER FLOW WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR HAIL AND WIND.

..ROGERS.. 10/11/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   36200006 35180005 33280026 32420117 32230169 32260243
            32530267 33350234 34990200 36020192 36840146 36980115
            36980074 36820017 36200006

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.